Bringing an end to the political divide in Thailand requires both long and short term planning. Unfortunately the key underlying factor is still being ignored, and that will simply repeat the process that could once again lead to violence.

Connecting the Dots does not like to take sides, but others may have a different opinion about that. But simply because one side has been acting in such a self serving way, it becomes difficult to appear balanced. But now there seems to be emerging evidence that supports the main complaints the poor have, and that is the huge and growing divide between the people who have, and the people who have little or nothing.

Fixing the education system is key to long term reconciliation in Thailand. Without a good education there will always be imbalance in society, and that is universally true in any country. That fact is common knowledge and even a modestly educated person could figure that out.

In very general terms, When Thaksin Shinawatra was elected Prime Minister, the elite were pushed from power and the poor seemed in control. During that time the Thai education system continued to produce sub par graduates because many had documents that did not match their actual abilities. When the democrats and in general the elite came back into power when Abhisit Vejjajiva was legally voted into the Prime Minister’s seat, nothing much changed.

From that time in December 2008 when Abhisit came to power there has been plenty of time to fix the education system. However the only fix seems to be a new coat of paint and all the tools really needed to fix it never left the tool box. Granted the democrats were under significant attack during that time, but a simple procedural change like not passing failing students would be a good first step that only requires a signature to implement.

With those simple facts, any casual observer of events in Thailand must conclude that keeping the majority of Thais under educated is a tool to stay in power. Both the educated people in the pro and anti Thaksin groups seem to be wanting to keep things that way.

So if that is indeed the case, then keeping the lesser educated Thais as cattle that can be lead with minimal effort and convinced to vote in whatever way is the desired state. Bringing an end to vote buying is dealing with the effect of low education. It seems it is one of the few ways the poor lesser educated Thais can get some extra income. If they were more educated the temptation of vote selling would be reduced or eliminated and they could decide their countries path with better clarity.

Unfortunately when education is in abundance, the elite may if not certainly find it more difficult to remain the elite. Challenges from elected politicians looking to work for their constituency and not the elite would most certainly be the outcome.

Even the progressive blocking of the Internet is fueled by the desire to stay in power. Many of the sites being blocked have little or nothing to do with the reasons they claim they are being blocked for. The reality is it is all about staying in power. If you can control the information, then even the educated people can be controlled just as easy as the uneducated people.

Suggesting that there are several thousand websites that have content that offends the King or members of the royal family is very hard to believe. The King of Thailand is one of the most respected people on the planet by Thais and non-Thais alike. If it was someone like some out of control politician who is threatening the world with nuclear weapons, that huge number of blocked sites could be expected, but not so with the Thai King.

The fact is the Internet is a tool for education as well as entertainment and sexual content. Opinions and views can spark thinking that could lead to not believing those who look to control others with false and misleading information.

So without education the chances reconciliation will succeed on the long term are near or at zero. What is going on appears to be a shallow effort with just enough spit and shine to make it look sincere.

Not to say it was not expected as it most certainly was, but Thaksin’s unusual absence from public view has allowed imaginations to run amuck. So it seems it is time to clarify some observations Connecting the Dots sees.

Starting straight at the top, the photo of Thaksin shaking hands with Nelson Mandela does appear genuine, but it also appears old. There have been recently published photos of both men that shows them more aged than the Photo Thaksin provided. The World Cup that just completed showed a much more frail Mandela enjoying the game. Connecting the Dots feels the photo is several years old.

The fact that Thaksin is out of view is simply because he went way to far pushing for his goal, and in doing so he caused significant negative views of himself. It was clear he was going for broke with the Red Shirts latest riots, and was disappointed that part of the military did not side with him. Simply put Thaksin over extended expecting military support.

That can probably be chalked up to the Red Shirt leaders telling Thaksin what he wanted to hear so they could get more money out of him. To them that was the perfect plan except not getting bail was not considered. They simply thought it would be like before when they could drop down some bail money and go back to what they were doing.

So because Thaksin over extended and fully expected to be making people he does not like disappear by now, simply he must face the reality that he is teetering on being arrested as people have become more decisive about him. So as staying out of sight more or less means staying out of mind, This is what Thaksin is doing until the heat is off.

Realistically Thaksin is scared because even as corrupt and psychotic as he his, he can recognize danger in that the control of his life is being taken away one piece at a time. There are only a few countries that will accept Thaksin on their soil, and if they do he must be a good boy and sit quietly or be asked to leave. That too is contributing to Thaksin’s silence.

This leaves Thaksin to use people to act for him. The M79 grenade attacks of recent days is more of a psychological reminder that the game is not over. It is hard to say that it is not just one person who is angry and has a stash of M79 grenades, that is just too difficult to call at this point. But it clearly suggests anger and the need to strike out.

Even the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) is suffering from Thaksin’s public silence. Their ranks are being eroded as fence sitters decide to abandon ship.

So the rumors of Thaksin’s ill health are natural as he is so out of character at the moment. But rest assured his mind is still busy trying to find a way to win. After all, that is one of the factors of being psychotic, not knowing when to stop.

This are not going well for Thaksin Shinawatra. One by one governments that once put up with Thaksin for their own personal gain are now discovering the underlying price to pay may be a bit steep.

With the announcement that Montenegro has decided to base their actions on what INTERPOL does, it most certainly leaves Thaksin anxious. Imagine if you would flying about heading to what was thought to be a safe haven only to find that while in transit the status had changed from safe to arrest on sight. That is likely to be the case as more or less it has already happened once to Thaksin.

If you recall when Thaksin left the UK on a trouble making mission, his visa was canceled more or less while he was still in the air. The primary reason for the private jet was to stay ahead of the law. Avoiding the hassles of commercial aviation’s security and all those checks was part of the reason as well as those quick Hollywood style getaways the bad guy makes.

So now as Thaksin is doing his best to keep his whereabouts unknown, the only logical reason for that is to avoid a law enforcement or bounty hunter welcoming committee should the arrest on sight order be put in place before he arrives. Needless to say it is a fair guess that Thaksin spends a significant amount of his time looking over his shoulder. That is why his new travel companion is a police scanner of sorts.

Knowing Thaksin and his financial resources, he most likely has someone monitoring the INTERPOL list 24/7. Should his name appear then chances are he will know about it inside of 5 minutes. So if he is in transit he can switch from plan ‘A’ to plan ‘flee’ at a moments notice. Unfortunately the countries that may ignore INTERPOL are small and far between.

It is fair to say Thaksin will start to age more rapidly as stress and anxiety play such a big factor in how people age. His days of being smug and arrogant a quickly coming to an end.

Connecting the Dots found it interesting that one of the ways the Thai Government is tracking Thaksin is by looking at his cronies. All they need do is check the travel plans of his cronies. If a bunch are heading to location ‘x’, then it is fair to assume Thaksin is there. Clearly that could be a problem for Thaksin if he slips in the back door. With INTERPOL being alerted that Thaksin is there, it is not hard to imagine a big yellow boot placed on the landing gear of his jet effectively grounding it. Then the next image that comes to mind is more comical as he makes his escape via land. That can be a problem if he is in Fiji or some other island.

Comparing how Thaksin was getting about before the April 2009 Red Shirt riots and how he is today, there is a stark contrast that clearly cuts past all the hype and spin he is trying to generate that things are fine. Even at the moment he fears saying anything simply because he has figured out that everytime he opens his mouth he either get someone pissed off or he makes a new enemy or something in between.

It is getting fun to watch what is going on in Thai politics, both sides are in what could be called a political food fight. Some of the accusations are so absurd it clearly calls for some popcorn as Thai politics has clearly entered into an entertaining stage.

So after a prolonged battle that involved everything from tanks to lawsuits, Thai politics has entered into a pause as both sides are still trying to look for a safe place to stand that does not have some organic content.

There is backstabbing going on in the auditor-general’s office as well as ship jumping. There is name calling and the twisted spin on things that resembles a pretzel. In short things look like they are getting back to normal.

Starting off with the obvious, it is all about power at this point and self serving actions on both sides. Nothing seems clear as Thaksin has been out of the news for a significant time. The focus on Thaksin has now drifted to a general sense he may be out of the game and politicians attacking their personal political foe is coming back to the front burner.

But that is not to say Thaksin is completely out of the game. He is having a go as well but not on a big scale. If the news reporting is accurate, it appears a member of Parliament went to have a chat with Viktor Bout who is accused by the US as being a major arms smuggler made famous by a Hollywood movie. The reason for the visit was to ask questions in hopes to connect a few dots himself. However Thaksin has already come down both feet looking to sue the MP for accusing him of something to do with arms smuggling. Unfortunately that is already DOA because it was questions and not statements the MP made. The fact the meeting became public knowledge is secondary and not against any law. However the fact Thaksin acted with such aggression suggests there may be some meat to this topic and will no doubt cause people to look.

Some Pheu Thai Party (PTP) MP’s decided Thaksin’s ship was sinking as well and voted against the grain and supported the new budget. That most certainly will lead to a political beheading in the PTP that will get a lot more media coverage than it is worth. A vote is a vote and to be punished for being democratic is laughable.

There is also the occasional M79 RPG that is being fired about as someone is angry things are not going their way. Already the first reaction is the person who fired the M79 is associated in some way with Thaksin. Unfortunately for Thaksin, that reputation being linked to violence is here to stay. That is why the Viktor Bout thing has some interest on so many levels.

Even the Red Shirts are finding it hard to pull things together. Their reputation has made all but the most radical take off their red shirts. With rallies designed to shift the blame for the violence they caused to others coming up with only a few hundred people, they too may be looking at the unemployment line very soon. It is hard to tell if they are foolish or desperate at this point. It seems Thaksin has very possibly abandoned them as he looks to clean up his international image.

All and all it seems the next month or so will be dominated with observing political wounds being administered, without much significant substance. In a way that is both good and bad. The good is the calm, the bad is knowing the problems will be back once Thaksin gets back in the news.

Over the past few years the top tier Thai courts have simply been stellar in their performance. Because of the care involved to follow the law and all its procedures, there is a real sense of fairness. Unfortunately that is not the case with second tier Thai courts.

A second tier Thai court is essentially the court of the people. They deal with rendering decisions that involve only a few people. Perhaps a civil case or some other criminal cases. Cases that involve communities are usually sent to the top tier.

Connecting the Dots has taken the time to review some recent cases that involved everything from a Thai employee caught steeling to contract disputes. In all cases it was Thai vs non Thai, and in all cases the Thai one the case.

There was one particularly disturbing case in that the Thai employee was caught steeling and it was observed by security cameras. The evidence was clear and undeniable with the totals stolen well exceeding several hundred thousand Baht. In this case the judge suggested that the foreign owned company consider it be a form of charity and then slammed down his gavel. To add salt to the wound the company was ordered to pay the severance package under Thai labor law being some 90,000 Baht in this case as it was a well paid employee. Had this happened in a non tainted court, the Thai employee would be looking at more than a few years in jail simply because of the value of the theft. Another consideration is this was in Bangkok and not some provincial court where things are even worse.

Simply this is how it has been, and this is how it still is. Unfortunately the deeper you go in tiers, the more you find. Thai courts are simply a long way from being cleaned up. Too much money is changing hands and that is unfortunate for people seeking justice.

High profile cases like the murder of a tourist or other things that impact Thailand’s economy are treated differently. There are too many eyes watching, so in this case the second tier courts act as the law intended with very few exceptions.

When it comes to Thai vs Thai, this still seems to come down to a wallet battle and not a legal battle. Who has a fatter wallet wins in most cases unless it is so obvious the judge may risk his seat if seen to go the wrong way.  This ignoring of the law Thai mentality was highlighted during the recent Red Shirt riots. The thought that they could buy their way out of trouble was very obvious.

How and when this will change will be greatly effected by the next general elections for parlement and Prime Minister. If Abhisit remains in power, then this will signal that change is coming sooner than later. If some other party gets control, then whatever gains may just come unraveled and things will stay the same.

It is not uncommon for the convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra to disappear for a few days or a few weeks at a time when things do not go his way. You can call it imagination or a gut feeling, but somehow this disappearance seems different.

To get an idea of what is going on in Thaksin’s head you first need to look at what Thaksin is looking at. For starters it seems once his Red Shirt supporters go to jail, they do not come out. It has been a bit of a comedy with numerous trips to court seeking bail and with each visit they get turned down. So much so they are starting to look like insects bouncing off the inside of a closed window trying to get out.

The next thing Thaksin sees is what members of the US House of Representatives had to say about him. With some calling him a crook and worse followed by a near unanimous vote Supporting Prime Minister Abhisit and his road map, that most certainly did not sit well with him. Members of the US House of Representatives are not as concerned about saving face simply because it is not as big a concern in the west as it is in the east. So very simply they let it rip.

Then there is the concern that at least one of Thaksin’s many passports may be illegal and that he may be too hot for Montenegro and could easily hamper their bid for entrance into the European Union as well as other goals they have. It seems the UAE has given him the permanent boot for not being able to restrain himself from launching political attacks.

Then there is the fact that many of the countries he was hopscotching about have now closed their borders to him no matter what passport he uses, and with that bit of information you begin to see a growing mountain of manure in Thaksin’s world.

Now with new arrest warrants out for him that have the word terrorism some place very near the top, the chances INTERPOL will look the other way is being replaced with a growing stiff neck. In fact it is hard to even track down Thaksin at the moment and his exact whereabouts is believed to be in Montenegro.

Then there is the courts rejection of his appeal on his assets case because no new evidenced was presented, and you suddenly see that all his personal efforts at wealth through corruption have effectively been negated.

So when you lump all of this together you begin to see a huge pile of negatives that have come along through shady deals and bribes to stay ahead of the law. At the very least what Thaksin now has is a world held together with bailing wire and chewing gum that could all come crashing down with one empowered person changing their mind because Thaksin is no longer an asset and he is increasingly becoming a liability.

The on the record comments from the US House of Representatives are probably the most damning for Thaksin. What was said goes deep into the political current with political clout and will influence other governments and their view on Thaksin. If the US gives Thaksin the thumbs down, that simply adds clout to Abhisit and his government’s attempts at bringing Thaksin home to serve his time.

This is all a first for Thaksin and he must deal with it. Attempts by his hired public relations hands outside of Thailand to sway public opinion have to carefully consider that they may actually piss off someone who is on the fence and has the power to arrest Thaksin and deliver him to Thailand. Seeing that many of the dealings if not all the dealings Thaksin now does are questionable, back stabbing is not out of the realm of possibilities. With a terrorist arrest warrant on Thaksin, he now has become toxic to governments he interacts with past or present.

All that needs to be done is give a foreign government dignitary a one hour tour of the burnt out buildings in Bangkok and make any number of connections to damaged buildings in other countries caused by terrorism. After that it is not too hard for the connection to be made that the money to fund this came from Thaksin as he is the only person that would benefit from overthrowing Abhisit and his government. That part does not need a conviction as simply the obvious conclusion is when all the dots are connected they lead back to Thaksin.

Connecting the Dots call on this one is Thaksin is busy buying stay out of jail insurance, and that is why he has been out of sight. His insurance premiums have obviously gone up.

Every now and again you will come across a bar or other venue that is ignoring Thailand’s smoking laws. For whatever reason the bars seem to think they are making more money by doing this, but in reality that is just a smokers illusion as non smoking bars are doing much more trade.

Aside from a few places that cater to Japanese customers, allowing smoking is not a wise financial move. Japanese men along with a few other Asian countries still have a fairly high percentage of smokers. The global average today is about 77% non smokers to 23% smokers. In the USA the number is now about 16% smokers.

So when it comes to a bar allowing smoking, there are simply too many others that do not allow smoking and customers will gladly visit them to avoid the need to shampoo excessively to be respectable to others. One of the first reactions to people that stink is ‘If you don’t care about yourself, how can you possibly care about me’. So smoking venues are looked at in just as much disgust as people who smoke.

There has been increasing numbers of cases that advertising agreements have been turned down with smoking venues as well. Why would a non smoker want to waist their time going some place only to discover on arrival that smoking was allowed and end up going some place else. So only advertisements of smoke free venues are being accepted. The reason for this is it reflects poorly on the advertising company as to what businesses they would advertise. Not every advertising company runs what could be called smut ads, and smoking venues are falling into that category now too. The end result is smoking venues end up being out of the mainstream where the money is.

So collectively trying to allow smoking just does not add up any more. Each year the percentage of smokers drop and as a result each year there are fewer customers for smoking venues.

The additional downside is smoking venues look dingy and dirty. Now that there is a comparison available between smoking and non smoking venues, non smoking venues are brighter and cheerful with much fresher air, and that alone attracts more people.

There are even some people who have chronic respiratory problems such as severe asthma. They would be forced to stay at home to avoid the smoke before the smoking laws. Now that is no longer the case and they can comfortably visit non smoking venues without fear of an episode. This makes up about 10% of the population globally. So doing the math being 23% smokers being compensated with 10% new customers, is playing to 13% really worth it. The answer is a resounding no! Pissing of 9 to satisfy 1 makes no sense at all. It is like reverse Russian Roulette with only 1 empty chamber in the gun.

However with that logic, there are fewer and fewer smoking venues around. They either have seen the light reflecting off the bottom of empty cash register draws or they have simply gone out of business for one reason or the other. The bottom line is smoking is still for losers.

There have been enough dots created over the past year to provide some insight on the border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand around the Preah Vihear temple. Looking at what is being gestured and what is being said tends to reflect personality traits common in Thais and Cambodians. Those dots suggest one side already knows they are wrong.

The Preah Vihear temple issue is a bit like a pot of water poised over a wood fire that is settling causing more or less heat in given spots. Sometimes the pot boils, and sometimes the pot simmers. In recent weeks it appears more people have gotten involved in the mix namely the Cambodian Royals. As Connecting the Dots has suggested in the past, that may be the way to go seeing that both Cambodia and Thailand have a proper name that starts with “Kingdom of.”

But looking deeper and at the psychological makeup of each country as a whole, some of the personality traits are clearly involved. Not to say that they are right or wrong, but simply that they exist. That offers a series of dots that add some clarity to the picture.

Looking at the Thai side, we see past examples of Thai pride that suggest anyway it can be done is fine. There seems to be examples of this all over Thailand. For example Thailand is very near the top of the list for pirated goods. Selling other peoples skills and work for a profit because they lack their own is common. Copied handbags to copied movies can be found with little effort. It is only when they are confronted do they start to whine.

When corrupt politicians had a run in with the 2007 Constitution that was specifically designed to keep corrupt politicians honest, the phrase ‘It isn’t fair’ echoed across Thailand. That perhaps is a key characteristic of Thais when the playing field is returned to being level from being skewed in their favor.

This is not just reflected in politics, but across the board in all aspects of life in Thailand. It is their country so they build in an edge so they always come out on top. Finding a foreigner who actually one a case in court against a Thai is near impossible, even when it was an absolute no brainier the foreigner was right, they still lose the case. This is so common the Thais actually brag about it. Even getting a 3G network in Thailand seems delayed by this as the Thais want to make it impossible for foreigners to compete for contracts.

So now we come to the 1962 court ruling that said the Preah Vihear temple belongs to Cambodia. The Thais begrudgingly accepted the international court ruling but when it was time to mark the border the Thais got out their cookie cutter and declared the border as they have.

Border cutting is common in Thailand. There is one school on the western edge of Bangkok on route 3242 that the provincial border bisects. They simply changed the provincial border to run along the school fence.

Moving to the Cambodian position on the Preah Vihear temple, the border that they have declared is very different from Thailand. The fact that they are now making gestures to involve the United Nations and whoever else seems to have the Thais on edge. The Thais do not want to involve anyone else in the dispute as it would seem they feel they would be forced to accept the border Cambodia recognizes.

If the dispute remains between the two countries, the Thai anyway it can be done is fine mentality will have a chance to succeed. But when the chance of war over a small parcel of real estate starts to grow, other bodies will simply step in whether the Thais want it or not. If that is the case chances are Thailand will once again face a level playing field and lose.

This may not sound like much of a story worth reading unless you have ever worked as a teacher in Thailand. But whether you have or have not, it still is a reflection of Thailand the Thais would rather not have.

This story tends to differ from our usual style of writing as it is more of a documentary than a dot connecting exercise or getting tomorrow’s news today. This actually follows 3 Thais on their first attempt to get a semi decent job. All of them are in their early to mid twenties, and all of them have worked for a Thai employer, and all of them were fed up with how their Thai employers treated them.  As a result of all of that, they all had their eyes set of working for a western run or western company.

Their story is remarkably similar except for their direction of education. One studied for administration, another accounting, and the third was computer programming and IT. But what happened next was similar across the board. Some companies they were seeking work at included some of the bigger names, and all were looking for entry level positions. The MRT (Bangkok’s subway) , DKSH, and several banks were amongst the places they interviewed.

Seeing that most of the positions a westerner would simply walk into with little or no fanfare, each of the jobs involved a series of interviews and tests. This is not unusual for a high end job like an engineering position or middle management where your knowledge and skill level is critical, but for general office work as a subordinate it is not usually expected. A quick look at a resume and a few phone calls to former employers is usually adequate. Seeing that the entry level jobs starting pay ranged between 9000 and 12000 Baht per month, we are not talking big money either.

But in the case of Thailand, things are very different. Starting off with the formula used to calculate a students GPA is very skewed to produce a higher number. For example a GPA of 3.5 in Thailand may actually only be a 2.9 outside of Thailand in what is seen as the international standard. Calculator.

Without going very deep you begin to see that the official Thai documents that reflect a students scores are for the most part seen as worthless by potential employers. The only way to judge if a person has the ability to do even entry level work is simply test them. Seeing that the GPA scores ranged from 2.8 to 3.9 for the 3 Thais, all were just tested to verify their worth. A person with a 3.7 in most cases would be a highly prized and welcomed candidate, and a 3.9 would simply have a job handed to them on a silver platter. But in the case of the Thais we followed, that GPA could have been written on toilet paper with a crayon and had the same respect.

The sad part of this is the simple reality of the fantasy bubble associated with the Thai education system. Very few universities in Thailand have western accreditation, and students that have their grades from there are given more respect and generally seen as meeting western standards. The 3 Thais we followed did not attend any of those premium universities, and as a result they simply had to prove they did not buy their grades or whatever.

At the time of the writing of this story, 2 of the 3 had found work. One landed a job at an international school as a receptionist with some administration duties.  That is generally viewed as more testing as they gradually move from the reception desk to the administration office. The other accepted an accounting job at an international hotel chain, and the third is still looking for work.

It was just a simple matter of time for Thaksin before his true nature became general public knowledge. For Thaksin and his desire to take the high profile road has left him being bigger than the mask he is trying to hide behind.

With a chain of events from Thaksin’s past mixing with a set of goals Montenegro has for its future, there is a definite huge negative effect Thaksin is having on that small country. The news article below implies the first of an apparent two step process. Step one put up a screen door. Step two take a closer look at what already got in.

Quoting the Canadian Press August 10, 2010

Montenegro: Citizenship for businessmen who invest more than €500,000 in tiny Adriatic country

Montenegro will offer its citizenship to wealthy businessmen who invest more than €500,000 ($662,650) in the tiny Adriatic country, the government said Tuesday.

The so-called “economic citizenship program” is designed to attract leading world businessmen into moving their companies to Montenegro, small Balkan country of just over 600,000 people, said a government statement posted on the official website.

As Montenegrin citizens, international businessmen would enjoy benefits such as lower taxes and costs for their companies.

Montenegro is the first country in the region to introduce such a program, and thus hopes to lure more investors than other Balkan nations, the statement said. The move underscores Montenegro’s openness to foreign investment, it added.

Tiny Montenegro became independent in 2006 after splitting from Serbia, and is now seeking membership in the European Union. Montenegro saw a major surge in foreign investment — mostly from Russia — immediately after the independence, but this has recently slowed down due to global economic crisis.

Montenegro already has granted citizenship to former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who fled corruption charges at home and who has promised to invest in Montenegrin tourism. The government has argued that there has been no international arrest warrant for Thaksin.

Apparently seeking to avert fears of possible abuse, the government said that only businessmen with “indisputable and credible biography and financial means” can apply. It said that “all applicants will be checked according to most strict international standards” and in consultation with international advisers.

The government said part of the €500,000 investment would be paid in the state budget.

In a typical divorce one or both decide to call it quits. But in this case it is the diehard Thaksin supporters that want nothing to do with the Red Shirts as guilt by association is starting to set in.

Drive around Bangkok in the area where the Red Shirts rampaged, and you will see burnt out building shells either waiting for demolition or rebuilding. With each glimpse of the destruction caused by the Red Shirts, a bit of face is lost by the nonviolent Thais who chose to wear a Red Shirt.

As it would be the media does not really divide the Red Shirts into groups unless it is the topic of the story. Because of that all Red Shirts are suffering the same shame as they are lumped together. It is because of this shame and stigmatization they want to be rid of the Red Shirts but keep Thaksin.

This leaves Thaksin with a bit of a dilemma, dump the Red Shirts so he can maintain his supporter base, or get a new can of red paint and continue. The answer becomes more obvious in that the Red Shirts make front page news more or less around the planet and not for good reasons, they simply have become a legal and political liability. The association is too vivid. And with more than 1 YouTube with Thaksin wearing a red shirt cheering them and encouraging violence in and just before the April 2009 Red Shirt riots, saying he is not involved is like saying the sun is not hot or water is not wet.

This also will weigh on his ability to stay in front of the law and not get arrested. So as it would seem for Thaksin, the Red Shirts will follow the same path as a used condom. That means the Red Shirt leaders will be left to fend for themselves as Thaksin finds or creates another group that is not connected to the Red Shirts in anyway.

This is classic Thaksin to use people then discard them once they are spent and useless to him. He has done it countless times before, and will continue to do so until he is finally stopped one way or the other.

That also means don’t be fooled by thinking Thaksin is concerned about the face of his Red Shirt supporters and their stigmatism when they see the damage around Bangkok and other parts of Thailand, he would only divorce the Red Shirts if it was for his personal good. So any coincidental changes that may help the Red Shirt supporters are just that…. coincidental.

It would seem that one of the tactics or at least one of the side effects of the State of Emergency is running down the clock to the next scheduled elections. With that thought, it seems the pro Thaksin camp is getting a bit restless.

When you look at the reasons why a government would be justified in dissolving Parliament, it comes down to a very short list. First that parliament has become non functional and deadlocked. Second is if a significant number of members went off line so to speak. The Polish government disaster is the rough equal of scale. Massive corruption would also be another reason. Outside of that there are few things that justify that action.

With Prime Minister Abhisit calling the shots if and when that will happen, it will more than likely not happen or happen very late. His government is functional and actually is the first functional government after the 2006 coup. The junta appointed government really did not do much because of lack of qualified people. The next two governments that were lead by The People Power Party also did nothing for the country and only worked to bring Thaksin back to power. So essentially if you take a snapshot of today, you will find no legitimate reason to justify dissolving Parliament. In fact if it is dissolved the chances are greater that more negatives will be produced as compared to positives.

As for the State of Emergency that is running down the clock, there were no visible indicators to support it. But now that is starting to change as the Red Shirts are starting to test things again in their usual way by disobeying the law. Also the longer the State of Emergency lasts, the potential value of gains by rallies or other attacks will be reduced, and that simply increases the possibility of normalcy. Simply there is significant incentive to maintain the State of Emergency. It is not perfect but it is the lesser of two evils.

Quoting the AP;

BANGKOK — Several hundred Red Shirt protesters defied a state of emergency in the Thai capital to stage a symbolic protest Sunday, with hundreds of people sprawling on the ground and chanting, “People died here!”

The demonstration at the city’s Democracy Monument was peaceful, but it was the latest sign of simmering discontent since the army cracked down May 19 to disperse a sprawling anti-government protest camp and end 10 weeks of demonstrations calling for early elections. More

This is all about cause and effect and there are some efforts underway by the pro Thaksin group to skip past a few dominos to repaint the picture and thus change the context. The above mentioned short Red Shirt protest is an attempt at making people forget it was their disobedience of the law that eventually lead to the use of force to disburse them. However conducting the protest in the shadows of burned out buildings that they themselves burnt, it is likely to be a reminder that will turn against the Red Shirts as the preceding dominos are clearly visible just a few meters away.

Also the chain of events is still very clear in the minds of people who were in Thailand while all this was going on and all the negatives be it damage or death can be traced back to the Red Shirts. It does not matter who pulled the trigger, if the Red Shirts were not there violating the law and attacking people with different opinions, there would have been no need to raise a gun and fire it be it a rubber bullet or a live round of ammunition.

This also suggests an attempt by the Red Shirts to divert attention as similar themes have been trying to emerge. All this actually provides justification for the State of Emergency as it seems the Red Shirts are planning to pickup exactly where they left off but with at twist. They look to blame the speeding train for hitting them because they were standing on the tracks. Somehow there are subtle hints of Darwin’s theory being demonstrated by the Red Shirts.

Perhaps temper tantrum bombs would be a more accurate description. It seems that whenever the pro Thaksin side is behind the 8 ball, one or more bombs go off.

In a way having a bomb go off in Bangkok is a good sign, except for the unfortunate people inside the blast radius. It tends to signify that the pro Thaksin camp is angry that their forward motion has been stopped or reversed. Although this time may be a bit different and more prolonged because the sudden realization that getting bail is not what it use to be.

There is a bit of history to this, and there are several aspects that can be discussed. There is the thought that a bomb may be a way to destabilize the government, and most certainly it can score political points by suggesting the good guys are being attacked by the bad guys. After all only bad guys would plant bombs.

The next possible thread is it could be an act of revenge looking to hurt people indiscriminately, and that most certainly would fall under the terrorism flag. It also could be a rogue person or persons that use violence simply because they lack diplomatic skills. But all and all the pattern Connecting the Dots sees is that of anger and frustration, and a bomb seems to act like that super laxative to get things moving again.

The last time bombs were used was also after military muscle was used, and it seems using direct violence against the government has come up short when it was tried. Thaksin’s very obvious anger that the military did not divide during the last Red Shirt attack on the government can substantiate why additional bombs have gone off. The situational connection is there but does not exactly match Thaksin’s style and is likely a Thaksin supporter who has the means to make bombs. It is also unlikely that Thaksin was in direct contact with the bomber.

It is too early to say if it will be a prolonged campaign of bombs as it will have an increasingly negative effect for Thaksin come election day. That is likely to happen only if Thaksin feels it is a losing battle. But already the psychological games are starting in provinces where the State of Emergency has been lifted. Rallies saying that The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) would form the next government and seek to restore Thaksin as its top if not only priority. This action at least suggests that there will be few if any more bombs, but that all depends on how the bomber is related to the PTP. If the bomber is rogue then they will continue.

Unfortunately there are too few dots at this point to make a proper assessment as to what way things will go. But for now we can suggest what the events will probably mean based on today’s set of variables. So what Connecting the Dots sees is Thaksin is testing the waters again to gage how people feel, and the results of that test will be considered when planning his next attack.

The last 6 months in Thailand have been interesting at the least and tragic at the worst. But based on the events of the last several weeks it seems an outboard motor is being used as a blender to properly mix things up.

It seems the time has come once again for Connecting the Dots to sort out the latest political status of Thailand, or who is doing what to who in more poetic terms. There are at least two significant driving forces at work, and ironically they both are related to time. One is time left and the other is doing time.

To start things off it is perhaps best to start with troublemaker and chief Thaksin Shinawatra. It would appear that simple math may be making him take a new approach. But as with all things with Thaksin, it is advised never to take what he says or seems to do at face value. So to best sort out what is going on we must look at what he sees and identify what his most likely actions will be.

Looking back at history, it seems it takes about a year or so for Thaksin to get back up to steam. All things considered that will put the next planned elections only a few months away and not really worth the time and effort. However that does not stop Thaksin from seeking photo opportunities and tainting other people’s image for his own personal gain.

Point in note is being in contact with a Japanese MP to give the impression he cares about other people. Publically he wants to condemn the shooting of a Japanese journalist who was covering the Red Shirt occupation. But behind the scenes he is doing his best to kill all and any investigations as he probably already knows the trail is likely to come back to him one way or another. But for now it is a good photo opportunity and publicity at least until the shooter is identified.

The next consideration is the fact that the Red Shirt leaders are in jail and there is a good chance they will stay there until their trial comes up. Based on the recorded evidence, being found guilty of something is almost a slam dunk. Whether the terrorist charges will stick is yet to be seen. So quick translation they are out of the game probably for good. That certainly changes things on a psychological level in that the game is now being played on a new level called sudden death. It was the Red Shirts and Thaksin that took it to that level and not the Thai government. So finding people willing to throw their lives away for Thaksin is getting hard, but that does not stop the covert activities of bombs and other anger driven actions.

Seeing that an anti personnel bomb was used at a bus stop at the Red Shirt rally site killing at least 1 person on July 25, 2010, and that being timed with the loss of a by-election in Bangkok that involved a jailed Red Shirt leader as a candidate, it seems the violence is only going to heat up again. The psychological value of that election will be felt all across Thailand saying that people object to the Red Shirts and their violence.

There is also some indication that Thaksin supporters are shunning the Red Shirts. They still like and support Thaksin but have concluded that the Red Shirts are not the way to go. All things considered there may be a transfer of Thaksin’s flag as well to a new group that does not have a violent history like the Red Shirts. This is a strong possibility as anything associated with the Red Shirts will likely be quickly extinguished one way or the other. The other reason is Thaksin is on the run and association with a violent group makes it that much harder to stay ahead of the law.

The Pheu Thai Party may also have to distance itself from the Red Shirts as there is an increasing possibility they could have a negative effect on the next elections.

Connecting the Dots feels the Red Shirts will be discarded by all as they have become a liability on all fronts. This is unfortunate for the Red Shirt leadership but it is part of how Thaksin operates. Connecting the Dots frequently refers to this as a dance with the devil as Thaksin cares about nobody but himself.