Faced with the sudden realization that only 1 in 10 of the people they hoped for actually showed up in Bangkok, Thaksin and his Red Shirt army are facing the reality that their effort is about to fail. Short of violence there is little they can do to bring about the self serving change they want.

It seems the problem started when they started to believe their own grossly exaggerated hype about 1 million people marching against Prime Minister Abhisit and his government. Their grand plans seems to also have been betrayed by the Thai Achilles heel of not thinking things out to conclusion before acting. As a result all the Thai government must do is wait the Red Shirts out as time and logistics are against them.

After simply being told a resounding ‘NO!’ by Abhisit that he was not about to dissolve parliament, the Red Shirts returned to their base camp from the military barracks they marched to. But all is not as it appears, the underlying reason is logistics and not caving in to Abhisit. The Red Shirts have set up only one place in Bangkok that can support the mass mob that did gather. Toilets, food and water play a significant roll in what can be done. Marching 100,000 people across town left them with non of the supporting essentials forcing a retreat after being on remote location for little more than 1 hour.

This forced an emergency think tank and a symbolic pacifier for the mob of collecting blood to be poured at the government house. This is only a time buying effort as Abhisit’s western education has left him for the most part immune to any Thai superstitions that may apply.

So getting back to how logistics will play a roll in the outcome, it is clear they did not plan beyond the concept of choking Bangkok. It most certainly would be an effective tool with red ants crawling all over the city. But if that tactic was deployed it would only last 1 day at best.

The Red Shirts will not be immune from their own poison. By choking Bangkok they also choke themselves of re-supplying trucks. Because of their violent nature any place they went in any smaller mobs would be greeted by shuttered shops. This would be a natural instinctive reaction of people as their survival instinct would kick in. So simply the Red Shirts must bring their own supplies if they are leaving the main nest, and there has been no indication of 100,000 backpacks  at the main nest to deploy with the people. So marching around the hottest city in the world in the middle of summer without supplies quickly causes the Lo Bat signal to be displayed thus ending the outing.

If the violence option is chosen it must be in a single location where the supplies are and that tactically places Abhisit at an advantage as a repeat of the April 2009 riots unfolds. The logistics factor also caused the April riots to end at the nest because the remote riots also ran out of supplies at places like the Victory Monument a day or 2 before.

Tactically this leaves only one option for the Red Shirts and that is a full head on coup like charge taking the high ground by capturing government buildings. That tactic must be deployed and completed in a few hours or less to avoid government counter measures and running out of supplies.

Thailand’s anti government rally seems to be quickly approaching a catch 22 situation. No matter what the rally partakers do other than pack up and go home is likely to cause them loss of face.

From the outside looking in it appears to be a chess game with tens of thousands of red pawns being manipulated by the red king that is already in check. The red king clearly looks to defeat the white king but each move causes more and more to be lost.

From the news reports it is clear the Red Shirt leaders are using disinformation to anger the troops. However this was totally expected as the real information is no different than what would be seen in a typical western democracy.

At the time of writing this entry the Red Shirts have just encountered their first taste of reality with Prime Minister Abhisit saying no to their demands and he was backed by to coalition parties. All that disinformation being spread by Thaksin’s cronies for the last few months has not so gently been swatted like a fly with one 5 minute live TV broadcast by Abhisit. The Red Shirts responded with the call to march the rally back to the main nest to ponder the next move.

Needless to say the next move will be some form of escalation on the part of the Red Shirts. It is yet to be seen how devoted the Red Shirts are to wander around Bangkok in the blazing summer sun and humidity. There will be virtually no supplies as nearly all businesses will shutter their doors and windows if there is Red Shirt Activity nearby. What stores remain open will have limited supplies and they will quickly be consumed leaving the Red Shirts with few options. A typical 7-11 store could see to a few hundred thirsty and hungry people but not thousands. In this case the Red Shirt’s reputation for violence will most certainly come back to haunt them.

So if the Red Shirts do not get violent, the government will simply wait them out. If they do resort to violence, they will quickly run out of fuel as they meet shuttered shops. If they resort to breaking into shops they will lose face and have a hard time with self denial of the criminal activities they are doing. So it seems this confrontation may all come down to logistics, and no food or water during Bangkok’s summer will have many Red Shirts heading north.

In what can only be described as poetic justice, Thaksin is getting a good taste of corruption in his own ranks. Thaksin’s wonderful little practice of gouging funds for himself seems to have been well learned by the Red Shirt leaders.

It was absolutely no surprise that a video surfaced with Red Shirt organizers peeling 1000 baht notes off a stack to pay protesters to attend the March 14 rally in Bangkok. By all comparison 1000 baht is a lot of money being paid for this rally. In the past a few hundred baht was enough to get supporters from the Northeast to attend. It would seem Thaksin’s criminal convictions along with vivid memories of the April 2009 riots have raised the price of a rally participant a few hundred percent.

So assuming that Thaksin is the source of all that Billion + baht that has flowed into Red Shirt bank accounts over the past 6 months, it becomes painfully obvious that this exactly matches what Thaksin must do to stay popular. Essentially Thaksin must pay people to be his friends or helpers. With Thaksin’s increasing stench from convictions and obvious problems staying ahead of the law, an extra layer of money deodorant is now needed to get people to hang out with him.

So now if you look at things from the Red Shirt leaders viewpoint, the moment they are successful in overthrowing the Thai government, they will find themselves suddenly unemployed. After all this is another one of Thaksin’s signatures, when you are of no further use to him you are discarded like used toilet paper. So in the sense of job security, skimming just enough money to make the rally impotent insures yet another day of employment as the next rally gets planned.

Reading news reports that protestors are getting significantly less than promised to attend the March 14 rally, many have simply decided it is not worth the aggravation and risk of personal injury to attend. So that simply gives Thaksin a good taste of his own medicine as what was once ample money suddenly becomes short of what is needed. As the Red Shirt leaders line their own pockets, Thaksin is quite helpless to stop this because he needs to stay out of reach of the law.

But who is to place the blame on the Red Shirt leaders for doing this, after all Thaksin taught them exactly how to do it so it must be the type of behavior Thaksin wants (wink – wink) .

Needless to say it does not take much of an imagination to visualize Thaksin bursting a few blood vessels with rage as he gets a taste of his own doctrine. Certainly it is not wise to be in Thaksin’s line of sight while all of this is going on as there is no telling what he would do. It is highly doubtful Thaksin has reached this level of rage before seeing that it all is on the line. So once again it would seem that what goes around, comes around.

All the red flags are showing in Thailand. Thaksin has his back against the wall and the clock will not grant him any more extensions. So what has been predicted looks to be an absolute certainty.

In the classic good verses evil, good always tends to win out in the end one way or another. But during the course of the drama from time to time evil gets the upper hand for a while. If this is the final act or not depends a lot on your understanding of mental illness of the psychotic variety.

To a person who shows the same characteristics as Thaksin, there is no stopping until the goal is reached. To them it does not matter of you are a peasant, royalty or anyone in between, if you are in the way you will be eliminated. In this case Thaksin not only has that basic drive that has driven him to attack several times in the past 42 months since the coup that ousted him, he has a clock that is already chiming out the last 12 chimes. On or about March 28, Thaksin will be banned from Thai politics for life as a result of his assets conviction that was read February 26.

On that date the money in Thaksin’s accounts will be disbursed to Thailand’s coffers and he will be forever banned from Thai politics. This has set up such an urgency in Thaksin to stop the clock before the twelfth chime (more so than Cinderella) he is like a nuclear reactor with all the control rods pulled full out. So far neither Thaksin or any of his cronies have been able to over come the power and the teeth of the 2007 Constitution. So when the clock hits 12, it is game over.. Or is it.

This rally that is set for this weekend is not really a rally. It is an attack on justice and democracy all rolled into one. Simply put if Thaksin is successful in overthrowing Prime Minister Abhisit’s government, Thaksin will have successfully smashed the clock. According to the news and opinions of others, this so called rally is an invading army in disguise. Until one of the Red Shirts does something violent, the facade will remain in place and Abhisit will have limited options.

As for all the warning signs, it is simply deja vu from the April riots. Thaksin’s family is departing Thailand, and that is simply the last red flag that says there is a running fan sitting in the toilet bowl. As planned as they made it look, it simply is a warning sign to stock up on supplies if you live in Bangkok.

So Thaksin will try every possible thing to over throw the government, and a quick reminder nothing is too low for Thaksin to try. In the past when people thought he hit bottom on how low he could go, he simply surprised everyone and exposed another dimension that would make the most evil Thai mythical creature blush. So a full on assault with assassinations at the same time is well within Thaksin’s level of nastiness to see his goal.

The difference between this so called rally and the April 2009 riots is significant. In April Thaksin tried to burn Bangkok down and overthrow the government, but he simply misjudged Abhisit because Abhisit never flexed his muscles. Now Thaksin knows how Abhisit will respond, so Thaksin has called in all his resources. They include sleepers being pro Thaksin people working in Abhisit’s government, the police and military to act as saboteurs. Collectively that could tip the scale in Thaksin’s favor.  So simply use your wildest imagination and then think worse and you will have some idea of what Thaksin will do.

The fact that Thaksin is more low key this time suggests he wants it to appear it is the people’s choice and not his. However if Thaksin feels he has the momentum in his favor he will take the lead. If he is in close proximity to Thailand perhaps Cambodia you can be assured Thaksin is running things as the UAE will have non of it.

On the other note if Thaksin is not successful you can expect a private coup for the next round with one of the goals being ripping up that silly 2007 Constitution that says he can not play anymore. If you have any doubts about that, check with a psychiatrist and they will quickly verify that to be the case with people suffering from this type of mental illness.

Connecting the Dots strongly suggests you take this event seriously and to have adequate supplies and someone pleasant to pass the time with if you are in Bangkok. You could be stuck inside for several days while the Thais sort out their future.

Connecting the Dots has from reliable sources that Thaksin’s Red Shirt army will descend on Bangkok in the following locations. Note this is not a regular entry for Connecting the Dots.

On Friday March 12 at or around 12:00 noon, Thaksin Red Shirt Army will gather at the following locations in Bangkok. Care should be taken to avoid these areas. Each location is expected to have about 10,000 protesters. It is uncertain if they will stay at these locations or move through Bangkok before March 14.

On March 14 all groups will march to Sanam Luang at Rachadamnoen Road. Each groups intent will be the total disruption of all transportation. Noting that some of the locations are along both of the Skytrain routes there is a strong possibility they will try to disrupt Skytrain service and possibly the MTR Subway service as well.

• From King Tak-Sin Monument moving along the main roads.
• From Lak-Si Monument moving along Vipavadi road to the Victory Monument.
• From Nonthaburi moving to Phra Pinkrao Village 3.
• From Thung-Song-Hong Police station moving along Vipavadi road to the Victory Monument.
• From Bangna Intersection moving to Sukhumvit Road.
• From Lumpini Park moving along Silom and Rama IV Road.
• From Thai – Japan Sports Stadium moving to the Constitution Monument.
• From Thanyaburi and Lum Look ka moving to Pha Thum Thani.
• From Sumutprakarn Provincial Pavilion moving to Industrial ring road and Kanchanapisek ring road bridge.

There will also be gatherings in:

• From Northern Provinces Red Shirts will be gathering in Nakorn Sawan Province
• From North-Eastern Provenances Red Shirts will be gathering in Nakorn Rachasima Province.
• From Central Provinces Red Shirts will be gathering in Ayutthaya Province.

It has all come down to a decisive moment for the Thai people. The choices simply are move forward and become a better partner in a global community, or move backwards to satisfy the personal self serving desires of convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra.

It all seems to come down to a few days of heated rallies that are due to start assembling March 12. The number of protestors as compared to the boasted numbers will be very different, but non the less the psychological card must be played by both sides.

Moving Thailand forwards or backwards in this case is not a metaphor, it is a genuine goal that has been well documented by the media. Prime Minister Abhisit wants to move Thailand forward and become a bigger part in the global community. By doing that there are significant gains and advantages for the Thai people as well as foreign businesses operating in Thailand. It is a win, win situation for all if it is done correctly and with transparency for all to see.

However for the convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra, he clearly and frequently announces he wants to move Thailand backwards to September 18, 2006 and pick up where he left off. Simply looking at the calendar that is a 3.5 years backwards step. There is no sanity to this desire. It is simply an ego and greed driven obsession of a very sick mind. Thaksin simply can not accept the will of others no matter who they are be it royalty or not, Thai or not. Simply everyone who Thaksin can see without the use of a mirror is ignored.

But as it would be this is the decision by force that will be undertaken. Thaksin’s billions is funding his movement with offerings if he is successful in his bid to overthrow all in authority in Thailand, and then promptly see to their disappearance for daring to cross him. Because of that it is truly a sad time for Thailand. Thaksin’s followers have seemingly forgotten the wisdom of the King spoken to them in his many birthday speeches over the years.

Ironically this may be the fallout of Thailand’s education system. Whether by design or accident, Thailand’s education system is a complete disaster when compared to other countries. Failing students are passed ahead as long as they are still breathing. As a result they end up having no skills to have a financially successful or reasonable quality of life and will need to rely on others to have any measurable level of success. But even that the skills are not present, the desire to have things and a relatively comfortable life is not quenched by lack of ability. It is those people who follow Thaksin with the hopes of handouts.  They appear willing to sacrifice their country to a dictator in exchange for being allowed to sleep in class.

With that consideration it becomes a bit of a paradox to move Thailand forward. All elements of Thai society and government must be targeted at moving forward including the education system. If the education system was designed to keep the rich dominant in Thai society and the poor submissive and relatively uneducated, it does not matter what the morals and ethical background of the rich are. In this case a psychotic rich convicted fugitive may be the man at the top because using education or lack of as a controlling tool does seem to be a double edge sword for those who use it. It is this past decision that will decide the future direction of Thailand.

There is a bit of a debate brewing about Thaksin supporters being paid to attend rallies or if there has been a political awakening. There is food for a fueled and heated debate from both positions, and it is time to sit down and have a look to see what the truth is.

You could easily sit down and pick any moment in Thai History to start, but in this case we have decided that the turn of the Millennium is as good a places as any to start. After all any year that has a lot of zeros is a good starting place. So with that starting point we must first set the stage, and what is seen is a neglected part of Thailand with low educated Thais who are mostly farmers. For the most part the status quo was the rich and Elite Thais tending to their own while forgetting about the poor. The only person who took care of the Thais in this part of Thailand was The King as well depicted in footage that is frequently aired on TV.

Thaksin Shinawatra saw this potential and harnessed their voting power by tending to them with a few crumbs. As it was, a few crumbs was enough to buy their votes and get elected as Prime Minister. Once Thaksin was in power he continued to feed them crumbs and put the rest in his own pocket. But unfortunately for the poor lesser educated Thais they could not see what was going on. All they saw was present tense and to them future tense was a day or 2 away.

Because of that very limited foresight, they tended to be just vote cattle for Thaksin with little other political value. Because of that Thaksin was able to do what he wanted because it was over their heads. Like cattle at a slaughter house, they would have no clue to what is going on until the fatal blow was administered.

Fast forward to late 2007 and the pending December elections that would seat the pro Thaksin People Power Party (PPP). There was clear evidence of pro Thaksin propaganda in the northeast. Ultimately this propaganda would turn to become an educational tool as to the power of their votes. Although they were poor and uneducated, they had significant numbers to steer the political direction of Thailand.

To many people’s horror they saw the equal of a 5 year old driving a bus and catastrophic consequences of the country being steered by people with 4 to 6 years of schooling. That prompted a new political party called the New Politics Party (NPP) that looked to limit children playing with matches so to speak.

Fast forward again to 2010 and we now see and hear about a huge rally with grossly exaggerated numbers and billions of Baht being fed into Thailand from a location where Thaksin is known to be hiding. Doing a little math and comparison to history, this is most likely rally funding money otherwise known as pay to come to Bangkok and overthrow the government money.

With that said, the question about a political awakening or not is a double answer. When asking the question if the uneducated Thais know they have political muscle the answer can only be yes.

When asking the question do they know how to achieve their goals without external guidance from an educated leader, the answer is generally no. the reason the answer is general is because many of the younger Thais have a higher level of education, but collectively not in significant numbers as yet to set their own path.

When asking the question if this group can be ignored in the future, the answer is no. Very simply their needs need to be addressed. As the older less educated Thais die of old age and other natural causes, they next generation will be calling the shots. With that comes a higher level of political awareness and a greater interest as to what is happening down in the Big village known as Bangkok.

This will however be a gradual change like a growing tree. One day that tree will provide shade to any who wish to sit in it’s shadow. Because of that any political party that wants to stay in power must court this group. They may not be able to walk on their own yet, but most certainly their eyes are now forever open.

Although the Thai government has taken a stance to be honest and open about what it is doing when it comes to Dealing with Thaksin’s Red Shirts, there is still a lot that is not being said. What is being kept from the public has both psychological and tactical reasons for sealed lips.

Connecting the Dots has been watching what has been going on as well as checking with our listening posts in Isaan and Northern Thailand, and we have come to the opinion that there is a significant concern about some of the tactics being employed by the Red Shirts. They clearly are of military design and thus pose more of a significant challenge than what happened in April 2009 in Bangkok. So as we are Connecting the Dots, we will now connect the dots for you as to what we see.

First off we must simply say the approach of Abhisit and his government are very admirable. The methods they have used in the past year have been proven to be measured and appropriate for the situation.

It is very clear there will be violence. All the little signs are there that the threat is trickling into Bangkok. However there is no significant evidence as yet to warrant the invoking of the Internal security Act. We are writing this entry on March 6 so events after that are not considered. No mass shipments of weapons have been detected as yet.

Thaksin has been unusually quiet and appears to be distancing himself from this wolf in sheep’s clothing rally. Typically Thaksin distances himself from violence as a form of alibi. The Songkran riots were the exception where he was clearly working at stirring the pot. Thaksin’s involvement has been passive in general with only contacts being with Red Shirt leaders, and occasional remarks on Twitter.

Another concern is there is clear evidence the Red Shirts look to disrupt Bangkok and use their vehicles as barricades. The government has countered by instructions to park the vehicles at Don Mueang Airport in northern Bangkok. This is a subtle way of neutralizing this military tactic without raising concern. How this will pan out is yet to be seen.

One of the biggest concerns the Thai government has is for innocent Thais being duped into believing this will be a non violent event. The Red Shirts are going out of there way to market this as non violent, but the fact is all the subtle signs are there and frankly there are too many dots to list except for the biggest ones. The government fears innocent Thais will find themselves in the middle of a unruly mob bent on a violent overthrow of the government. For lack of a better term, these innocent Thais will become a form of human shields.

Thaksin has set into motion calling this a people’s army and is setting up platoon type structures with a 1 to 10 ratio. It is all this military type readiness that is the biggest dot. A military structure is not needed for a rally if the intent is to be peaceful. Another dot is the intended size of the rally is meant to overwhelm.

Other concerns are news reports of six or more rally sites. Although we have only seen 1 report of this without naming the locations, it is totally a military tactic and would only be used in a divide and conquer tactic. The Red Shirts have floated this before and ran a series of small unannounced rally tests to see how fast the government would respond and in what way.

So the Government is selectively releasing information as significant evidence becomes available. Keeping their hands above the table is a bit of a handicap when nearly all of what Thaksin and the Red Shirts are doing is under the table.

The government along with other observers expect an explosion of violence on Que, and as it would be the government must wait for the Red Shirts to take the first swing in order to legitimize countering tactics. But it is clear already this will be a military style conflict as it remains Thaksin’s only choice. His options have been limited to this because of the February 26 court ruling that found him guilty. 30 days after the ruling he will be banned from politics for life and even for Thaksin it becomes hard to legitimize himself going against a mandate spelled out in the Constitution. Totally ignoring the laws will turn Thailand into a lawless state and only Thaksin’s personal laws will be the law of the land.

With late breaking news reports about 3000 rounds of ammunition and 20 grenades suddenly missing, and certain pro Thaksin military personal in and around the area where the arms went missing in recent weeks, it looks like the dots are clearly lining up to take advantage of using the governments tactics against the government. That is to go in with measured force to control the crowd and then suddenly discovering the crowd is not unarmed and hungry for blood responding with overwhelming force to neutralize the unarmed riot control police and military.

Now that the Thaksin assets verdict has been read and Thailand is moving forward, Thaksin is still looking to move things backwards. If you believe the numbers and the hype of a million man protest, you can only relate this to bully mentality looking to beat up the good kid who plays by the rules.

If you read what the Red Shirts are saying together with Thaksin, this coming rally is not a rally but actually a strategic assault. There are clearly defined goals that amount to holding that good kid’s arms while the bully has a go at him. This in specific is attempting to interfere with the military by attempting to keep them trapped in barracks and not let them deploy.

Quoting The Nation quoting Jatuporn;

Ahead of the mass rally in the capital, mobile units of  red shirts will lay siege at Army bases to block the troops from staging a coup or cracking down protesters.

The targeted bases include those of the 2nd Infantry Division in Prachin Buri, the 21st Infantry Regiment in Chon Buri, the 31st Infantry Regiment in Lop Buri and the 9th Infantry Division in Kanchanaburi.

Connecting the Dots has not checked but their may be some military laws pertaining to interfering with the military that could provide a reason to deal with this group in a less than subtle way and insulate the government. It would be a 100% military issue dealing with people who look to interfere with the military conducting its duties to King and country.

At this point it has nothing at all to do with democracy and everything to do with a coup by Thaksin to forcefully overthrow the government himself. If this is indeed the game plan then Thaksin hopes to make this so called rally the big brother of the April 2009 riots, and that is exactly Thaksin’s signature being to hit harder with a bigger hammer with every attempt.

This will clearly result in treason charges and a likely death penalty. If Thaksin’s attempt should fail, expect more of Thaksin’s cronies running out of Thailand with their tail tucked between their legs. This will simply be to severe to overlook and let slide and glide through the courts. These people will be in jail without bail waiting to stand in front of the judge.

Meanwhile as all of this is going down, per usual Thaksin will be comfortably out of reach and very possibly calling the shots from Cambodia. To do so from the UAE will simply not be tolerated.

If the red shirts do manage to muster numbers, there is likely to be a sea of yellow shirts to back up the military and the police, thus putting a damper on the effectiveness of the number of red shirts. Unfortunately the yellow shirts are not under the same mandate of no violence. In the past any violence by the yellow shirts was used in defense and not offense. So seeing big numbers of yellow shirts waiting inside government compounds may effectively stop the Red Shirts. If conflict takes place inside government building compounds, it is already clear that the Red Shirts breached the perimeter and are on an assault. Looking ahead on how that will stand up in court, it would simply be self defense on the part of the yellow shirts as in fact they would be acting in the capacity of a militia.

It would appear that a list of about 53 names has been published by Pro Thaksin people who are not shy about violence. In this entry Connecting the Dots will look at a few names and how they got on Thaksin’s  s hit list.

Starting off the list that will quickly set the tone we first will look at Abhisit Vejjajiva.

When Thaksin was Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva was just a member of parliament and part of the opposition. Because Thaksin listens to nobody, Abhisit was completely and totally ignored. He offered no threat to Thaksin because the Thai Rak Thai party (TRT)  was so powerful. At most Abhisit was an insect to Thaksin that occasionally made a buzzing sound in his ear.

But now that Abhisit is Prime Minister and is keen on following the straight and narrow path that involves bringing Thaksin to justice, he has been added to the  s hit list. Abhisit is simply in Thaksin’s office and sitting in his chair.

Prem Tinsulanonda is clearly seen as one of Thaksin’s biggest foes. This all came to pass in June and July of 2006 when Thaksin decided Prem was causing problems and standing in his way. There were some efforts by Thaksin to undo Prem back then. But as Powerful as Thaksin was, Prem had ropes where Thaksin had strings. Prem is part of a loyal following devoted to The King of Thailand, and seeing that every sign at the Thai border says Kingdom of Thailand it was not hard to see who was going to win that match. Because of that Thaksin feels Prem was instrumental in staging the coup that ousted him.

The nine judges that ruled Thaksin abused his power and ordered his assess be confiscated and returned to state coffers is the only reason they are on the list. They simply were fair and just. So this is just Thaksin punishing them for doing the right thing.

Members of the media that are on Thaksin  s hit list are simply not afraid to call it like it is. Thaksin is so far off base with his greed and self indulgence, any accurate news accounts simply look bias against him. Even the discussion of this  s hit list tends to make Thaksin look bad, but the fact is it does exist and is posted on the internet. Thaksin was always trying to squelch the media and run his own propaganda. Thaksin simply despises the truth and that is why the news media is on the shit list. Only Thaksin’s version of the truth is acceptable, and that tends to be completely and exactly opposite of what the media publishes.

As for the rest of the people on the list, in one way or another they are looking to get Thaksin to serve his jail time, and are also working at keeping Thaksin looking over his shoulder for bounty hunters, Interpol and perhaps someone else who has their own list with Thaksin’s name on it.

For Thaksin to go after people who get in his way is nothing new. He has been up to this for as long as anyone can remember. But to openly go after the nine judges that handed down his most recent guilty verdict has the distinct echo of how drug Cartels intimidate to stay in power.

As predicted Thaksin has called open war on his enemies. One of his biggest enemies at this point is judges who he can not buy. These judges have no doubt listened to the King of Thailand reminding them of their duty. So essentially to go after the judges that listened to the King could vaguely be seen as disrespect for the King. But then again this is nothing new for Thaksin either.

When Thaksin was Prime Minister, it was a near daily occurrence to see his lawyer Noppadon Pattama at the court filing a lawsuit against someone who Thaksin did not like. Most were frivolous but with Thaksin’s control over the courts all but the most outrageous had some sting.

The first move against the nine judges is a petition drive to seek impeachment. There is little doubt Thaksin will achieve this goal seeing that he managed so many for his petition to the King requesting to be bad without punishment. So this will start a process that ultimately seeks to punish the judges for respecting the Kings wisdom.

With the guilty verdict there was little doubt Thaksin would turn violent through his supporters. The story below simply reflects that. With all of this open mafia style warnings, there is little doubt as to the content of private conversations with Thaksin.

Quoting the Nation March 4, 2010;

KHATTIYA’S WEBSITE
Website lists 53 persons ‘marked on forehead

The website of suspended Army specialist Maj-General Khattiya Sawasdiphol has released a list of 53 people in various professions who it said “had been marked on the forehead”.

The names include Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and two Cabinet members, members of the media, lecturers, activists and core leaders of the People’s Alliance for Democracy. All the persons are known for their anti-Thaksin Shinawatra stance. Three members of Nation Multimedia Group, including group editor-in-chief Suthichai Yoon, are also included in the list.

The list does not carry any message threatening the lives or safety of the 53 people but said these people had committed “bad things” and are now “paying the price for their bad karma”.

Deputy Bangkok police Pol Maj-General Amnuay Nimmano said any of the 53 people who felt threatened or offended by the website list could file a complaint with the police against those responsible for slander. He said the footnotes under their names were enough to make the case for slander, “irrespective of whether what the footnotes say are true or false”.

Police said they are in the process of securing an arrest warrant for a close aide to Khattiya, Phornwat Thongtanaboon, who posted a YouTube video threatening a civil war and daily bomb attacks. He was charged yesterday with two offences: threatening unrest or rebellion through a public statement, and intimidation, after a legal interpretation deemed his YouTube statement a criminal act.

In another video message by a man close to suspended Army specialist Khattiya Sawasdiphol, obtained by The Nation, Phornwat Thongthanaboon has threatened to blockade the compound of Nation Multimedia Group, off Bang Na-Trat highway, soon.

The 45-minute Camfrog clip, recorded on an unspecified date, said: The first target to be blockaded is The Nation building, starting from tomorrow. You must move away all your broadcasting equipment [laughs]. Consider yourself warned. There will be other [non-NMG] people to be targeted in a list I have,” he said.

Speaking to listeners whom he did not identify, Phornwat continued: “Anyone wanting to blockade The Nation, just go. Anyone wanting to blockade ASTV station, just go. Seize their properties. You can [enter their studios and] touch their microphones if you want to.”

Phornwat, who is better known as K Thong, referred to his YouTube video message threatening a civil war and daily bomb attacks in Bangkok, saying: “It is very worthwhile. A small-time DJ like myself can reveal the true selves of media like ASTV, Thai Post, Naew Na, The Nation and Siam Rath cry like babies.”

He also mentioned Voice of Tape media, costing Bt1,000 a month for Web broadcast, which he said could rock national media. He gave no further details about it.

Phornwat also said he had allied with the Democrat Alliance against Dictatorship despite not having any common ground with them. “The People’s National Army [cited by Khattiya as an armed civilian force he has set up] will adhere to the DAAD’s strategy,” he added.

If the red-shirted protesters are surrounded by soldiers, a large number of them will surround the soldiers again. They will lay down their arms only two days after they have no foods and drinks.

The fallout for all of this is Thaksin will discover there are much fewer safe havens for him. With open attacks from Thaksin, countries will be much less likely to allow Thaksin on their soil. But it is clear thaksin wishes to have Thai soil under his feet in the very near future, and to be running the country disappearing his enemies. That all looks to be done before the 30 day period after his February 26 guilty verdict. On that day the money in his bank accounts will be disbursed.

Adding to that based on the below it seems any violence by Thaksin will be labeled as getting rid of a corrupt and unjust government and legal system that has done him wrong. It is clear the words remorse and Thaksin will not be found in the same sentence any time soon.

Quoting the Nation;

Thaksin to explain case to the world

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra plans to send letters to leaders of countries worldwide to clarify his asset seizure case, Manit Chitchanklab, a former lawyer for the dissolved Thai Rak Thai party, said.

Mr Manit has just returned from visiting the convicted politician in Dubai.

He said Thaksin will tell the international community that his wealth was derived from hard work and that he received no justice in this case.

The Supreme Court on Feb 26 ruled to seize 46 billion baht of ill-gotten assets from Thaksin and his family after finding him guilty of  guilty of abuse of power.

After the landmark court ruling on February 26 on Thaksin Shinawatra that said he was guilty on all counts of manipulation to grow his wealth, Thaksin has become wounded prey in the eyes of prosecutors. Because of that ruling, potential litigations that were never pursued because of lack of supporting evidence, now have more evidence than they could ever have dreamed of.

It is a given Thailand looks to go after Thaksin. His legal protective shell has been cracked wide open and that simply means he is vulnerable to successful legal attacks of both the criminal and civil variety from all over the world. Thaksin has had countless business dealings in a variety of countries with a variety of different companies. Many of those dealings went south as Thaksin increased the power to his greed suction pumps. There were a few very public legal challenges to Thaksin, but it seemed that Thaksin had enough influence over the Thai courts that he would always win.

Thaksin’s assumed standard practice of deception has now been proven to be factual in this court ruling. This also has no doubt provided both desire and motivation to go and dig into Thaksin’s business dealings. This at the very least would prove to be a worthy class assignment in a variety of studies. Students around the world studying criminal investigations into white collar crime have just been given a real life real time project.

There is no real way to come up with a valid estimate but between 50 and 100 cases against Thaksin from around the world would seem to make sense as the what goes around comes around phase of Thaksin’s life begins.

There will be a series of subtle events that Thaksin will start to experience. One of the more significant ones is people will simply not want to do business with him. It will be like jumping into shark infested water with a bleeding friend.

As the civil and criminal cases start to accumulate from places other than Thailand, countries that allow Thaksin in are much more likely to have second thoughts about that particular bit of wisdom. In fact it is fair to assume that every country Thaksin has had dealings in will produce at least one court case against Thaksin.

As these cases mount it will be more difficult for Thaksin to keep a following in Thailand. Sooner or later even the least educated Thai will have to question why Thaksin has so many cases against him from so many places. This all adds urgency for Thaksin to overthrow the Thai government, and it also translates into a significant increase in danger as Thaksin will need to use significant force. Legal approaches and staying within the law for protests are impotent at best at this stage of the game. There is simply too much going the wrong way for Thaksin. Because of that Connecting the Dots places the chance of violence before Songkran (April 13-15) near or at 100%. That violence may be in the form of assassinations or riots or both.

So when It comes to allowing a man dignity Thailand works to insure it with stinging laws and heavy jail time. Places where political correctness exist simply strip away a persons dignity one layer at a time, and a person without dignity is not a person at all.

If you ever noticed that when you try to get into a hot tub, your body reacts to the shock and you slowly get in. But if the water was skin temperature and then raised while you were in it, you would not even notice it very much. In short it is the contrast the gets our attention.

When a man comes to Thailand the contrast in political correctness is very obvious. In going from walking on eggshells to being allowed to speak your mind knowing people were not going to be upset and break down in tears is great. It reduces stress and anxiety to be free to express an observation or an opinion knowing full well some people will not agree. This is part of dignity to be able to make your own choices in what to say. To be treated like a child and punished for speaking ones mind is very undignified to an adult and particularly so to a male.

This is first realized when a person returns to their home country. The huge contrast is like a non smoker walking into a smoke filled room. Very simply it is choking and realizing the loss of dignity living there. Once that happens depression quickly sets in and the psychology of knowing there is a place called Thailand that dignity can be found becomes a magnet drawing people back.

Also the attitudes people have and women using sex as leverage can be found in the west. In Thailand attitudes do not exist, and sex is abundant removing any leverage woman may use. Any particular woman is far from being the only flower in the field, and western men are seen as a prize catch by Thai woman. So with that ego boost being felt by men, and then facing going back home to people generally being grumpy and discontent while being subject to manipulation via sex, also compounds the depression.

With the cost of living being so inexpensive in Thailand, many people that have not yet retired may find working part time adequate. For example people that do not need to be physically present and use the Internet for work may find working 20 or 30 hours a month pays the bills. Doing that and having money left over for recreation is a real positive reason to stay in Thailand. When faced with going back and needing to work full time just to pay the bills never mind having beer money, simply adds another layer of depression.

There are many other reasons that simply are to numerous to list, but you can clearly see the reasons associated with suicide are tied to leaving Thailand, and returning to what could easily defined as hell. People facing financial problems in Thailand know it will be many times worse, and probably living in what could be defined as poverty also are factors that contribute to depression leading to suicide. So in short suicide is tied to other places, but happens in Thailand when faced with the prospects of returning to life in those other places.

If you take a look at the reasons listed, they very closely mirror reasons why children commit suicide. The social pressures are often too much for them. Being bullied is a form of loss of dignity, and pressure to fit in simply raises stress. Political correctness has become to many an extension of the schoolyard bully. The bully often uses extortion in exchange for not getting beaten up. If you do not comply with political correctness, you will receive a very similar beating by perhaps losing your job and further removing your dignity.

Money can not buy happiness and the basic emotional needs of being human, and that is Thailand’s magic formula and another reason why it is called the land of smiles.

Thailand is a lot of different things to a lot of different people. To some people it is a retreat from the world they came from, and to others it allows them to find what was taken away.

Thailand has its share of problems at the moment. There is political unrest that can erupt into violence, there is poverty and there is corruption that contributes to the poverty. Despite all that and more, most men prefer Thailand over their home country that may be rich, full of the most wonderful and modern technology and relatively free of corruption.

When a man first sets foot in Thailand for whatever reason be it business or holiday, it does not take him long to get addicted. The charm of Thailand is all too addictive with the simplicity of a smile. After about a day people come to realize there is no political correctness, and to virtually everyone it is like a breath of fresh air. If fact every time political correctness rears its ugly head, it is quickly beaten back so as to not spoil this paradise on earth.

The beaches are amongst the most beautiful in the world, and the kindness and hospitality offered to tourists is second to none. The magic and disarming effects of a smile melt away the sharpest edges of stress. You can go and get a wonderful 2 hour Thai massage including tip for about $15.00 USD if you know where to look. When it comes to Thai cuisine people find the food spicy and mouth watering.

If a man sets his mind to make the jump and abandon his own country to live in Thailand as many do, he will do so without hesitation often taking a huge financial hit to do so. The cost of living together with the wage scale in Thailand is amongst the lowest in the world. Leaving a $60,000 USD job in the US to work for roughly $13,000 USD in Thailand looks absolutely insane to people that have never set foot in Thailand, but not to people that have.

If there is anything Thai men have done right, it is to make Thailand a wonderful country for men, and to that every man applauds them. The Chinese have a saying that reads ‘For every ten men that visit Thailand, eleven want to stay.’ Men can be men in Thailand and insuring a man’s dignity is amongst the highest priority in Thailand. The defamation laws are amongst the strongest in the world and getting serious jail time for openly attacking someone and doing damage to their face is simply not tolerated. There are no tabloids in Thailand, and internet attack websites are quickly dispatched and the people involved in them suddenly find their lives have just taken a turn for the worst.

Thailand is all about being a man, having dignity, and enjoying the basics of what life has to offer. Modern technology, excessive wealth and the rat race of the west come in a distant second.

Next Part 2