The hunt is on

With Thaksin Shinawatra’s appeal deadline passed, a significant change has occurred. That change is open hunting season with military ordinance on anti Thaksin protestors by Thaksin supporters and Thaksin’s private army.

Thaksin has basically said with his actions, he cares nothing about Thai law unless it can be used to his advantage. Not appealing his conviction is a shift for Thaksin who always sought to delay, stall, drag his feet or whatever. Connecting the Dots sees this as now a deliberate open push to increase the violence and heighten the civil war.

Note: Connecting the Dots is not afraid to call this a civil war because that is what it is if you check the definition. Others may be reluctant to say civil war because civil war is such a powerful phrase that can effect tourism and other income to Thailand. Click here for the definition.

Thaksin and his supporters are now in full on attack and using hit and run tactics for now. The M79 attack on protestors on November 20, 2008 that left at least 1 dead is just such an attack. The use of military ordinance is now becoming common as this is at least the second time such weapons were used. The attacker can be up to 375 meters away and deliver lethal blows staying well out of range of retaliation. If this sounds familiar it is because it is what Thaksin is doing by attacking from a distance. Attackers close up with hand thrown military ordinance have been caught by officials.

This latest attack is designed to provoke retaliation attacks if nothing else. That will happen if the anti Thaksin protestors can not be protected by the military and police. The military for the most part seems trustworthy, however asking the police would be like asking the fox to guard the henhouse as they are somehow absent during attacks.

The military for the most part has been unusually silent for the last few weeks. Connecting the Dots has a very strong gut feeling that the pro and anti Thaksin parts of the military are already posturing for a military vs military confrontation.

The pro Thaksin government has also changed  tactics by suggesting that the controversial change to the constitution be delayed. However this may be just words as the push for change is still going on. With the announcement their may be a delay (below) their could yet be another shift in the position of the government.

The Coalition chief whip Withaya Buranasiri on Wednesday conceded that the planned charter debate might have to be postponed to the next House session because of incomplete preparations.

The motion to amend Article 291 of the Constitution to pave way for the formation of the Constitution Drafting Assembly might not be ready in time for the current session, Withaya said.

The Nation

This leaves open yet another side of this. The evidence that incriminates the government on the October 7 attacks has been delivered, however the government has sought another delay before responding.

Other Thaksin tactics also look to be repeated including certain announcements that may or may not come to be. They are all designed to draw media attention. The ‘Thaksin will return listen to his message December 13‘ is just one such tactic. Thaksin needs to be front and center and bigger than life to apply the psychological push.

Open and direct threats of violence by Maj Gen Kattiya Sawasdiphol (below) are also a tactic to discourage huge numbers of protestors as another way to show Thaksin’s strength. With such outward and open threats, it is hard to believe he will be a free man for very long. Essentially he has already incriminated himself.

Maj Gen Kattiya Sawasdiphol, a pro-Thaksin army officer, Thursday warned the People’s Alliance for Democracy that a massacre would happen Sunday if they hold a mass demonstration in front of Parliament.

“I would like to say that anyone wanting to join the rally should reserve a temple for his or her own funeral,” Kattiya said. “Being united, you will be slain in group.”

He said the bomb attack inside the Government House early Thursday would not be the last one but PAD opponents would launch bomb attacks against it every night.

Kattiya earlier faced a disciplinary probe for having threatened the PAD with attacks by warriors he had trained.

The Nation

The next several days will be crucial as the People Power Party dissolution ruling draws ever closer. On November 26 there will be some evidence reviewed. This essentially is a problem for Thaksin as his power base has been steadily shrinking as more and more Thais come to realize what Thaksin is all about. If he felt he had enough leverage to win a significant majority, the push for violence would not be as great. Pushing the changes to the Constitution will be make or break for Thaksin. The civil war approach is a plan ‘B’ if he can’t win legally.

The anti Thaksin protestors must stand their ground and not be chased away by thugs if the country is to be saved. At this point in time, ‘politics’ is a word not found in the Thai language, it has been replaced with war.

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