Suvarnabhumi standoff

Thailand’s government risks a lot if they use force to remove the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) from Bangkok’s main airport. If force is used, no doubt there will be damage to the airport that may keep it closed for days if not weeks more. With the backlog of stranded passengers backing up, the economic results of a prolonged closure could be beyond belief.

It all comes down to how arrogant the Thaksin Shinawatra puppet government is. Thus far they have refused to do the right thing. Virtually everyone in Thailand that has a credible reputation has urged the government to step down.

The departure area is one of the most sensitive parts of the airport. International security requirements must be met in this area or the aircraft may be refused entry at it’s intended destination country. In a battle no doubt anything that is not nailed down will become a defensive weapon used by the PAD and ultimately destroyed. So the functionality of the security procedure must first be re-certified before the airport can open again.

So as you can see the PAD has much more leverage than what is seen at first glance. If the government steps down and the PAD abandon the airport without damage, cargo service can resume inside 24 hours and passenger service inside 48 hours. All that is required is the security certification to satisfy the destination country.

No doubt this fact was in mind when the police aired a desire to talk the PAD out. The government chose to sack National police commissioner General Phatcharawat Wongsuwan clearly in favor of violence. So the question is will the police act as a madman and ignore the consequences of damage to the airport, or will sanity prevail. Sooner or later someone will end up on the hot seat for electing to use violence.

This brings us to the looming threat of a coup. The hand of the military may be forced if violence at the airport is chosen. They have the obligation to protect the country, and if a coup can be seen in that light it may be digestible with a lot of sugar and honey to wash it down. If the government’s choice is clearly harming Thailand then the military will be forced  to act. Their may be provisions in the constitution that allow this however that has not been researched yet by Connecting the Dots.

If violence is chosen, it may be the instrument to act out Thaksin’s revenge on Thailand for giving him the boot. Because Thaksin truly does not care, no doubt he is pushing for violence. Then he can posture himself as an even bigger savior of Thailand later. As per usual, Thaksin’s cronies will take a hit but Thaksin once again is untouched. As far as Thaksin is concerned they are expendable as no doubt there will be more willing to step up and dance with the Devil.

One must keep in mind that this is all about pushing through changes to the Constitution to cut Thaksin free and immunize themselves for the future. With the looming dissolution verdict the government is feeling increasingly desperate like a trapped animal. Seemingly many already are ready to take a hit for Thaksin’s promised riches later.

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