In Thailand, assassination attempts are only one ingredient in chaos soup. Throw in blocked intersections with abandoned taxies to choke Bangkok and a few home made bombs to stir anger and panic and you can quickly see the soup turn red.
Connecting the Dots did foresee chaotic events, but admittedly we did not expect assassination attempts. However the fact that it has a certain familiar heavy handed ring does suggest that the end of that trail may end with a certain fugitive former Prime Minister. It is way to early to speculate that the trail will end up with Thaksin, but it does have that smell to it with pro Thaksin military people involved.
The fact that Pro Thaksin military people are involved suggest what we predicted that the potential of a Thaksin lead coup is a possibility. Thousands of troops are deployed without weapons and with the potential of needing to be everyplace at the same time provides diversion and divide and conquer all in the same breath. Add to that children human shields imbedded in the red shirt mob and you also have the factor of hesitation that may tip the balance in Thaksin’s favor.
Thaksin asking for children to be in the mob tends to counter the attempts by the government that the government will only respond to and not start any violence. It is sure to provide fuel for Thaksin should there be a next round, and no doubt it will be a rally cry focused on a parents desire to protect their child, say nothing about the poor judgment of red shirt parents who brought their children along.
It seems the red shirts are just spontaneously coming up with places to go and make noise, and that will cause a rush to redeploy the police and military. The fact that the Constitutional Court was chosen as one of the places to rally at strongly suggests impulse and not thought out plans. When you add this as quoted from The Nation;
One of their leaders said the Constitution Court was part of the beaucratic polity that involved in ousting their prime minister; Thaksin Shinawatra.
and you suddenly have a situation of contempt of court. To criticize the courts ruling is contempt of court. This should not be a flash point as the court will likely respond in the form of an arrest warrant and it should take a few days for it to be served.
Connecting the Dots sees that if the red shirts are to do anything they will do so at peek rush hour time to cause the most chaos. So morning and evening rush hours will be a time to watch. The potential of bombs is a real possibility, and with the suggestion Pattaya may be targeted for bombs suggests global visibility in the media. If this lingers on into the Songkran festival, then places where non-Thais may join in the festival in Bangkok are also possible targets. The short list is lower Sukhumvit road in and around Nana, Soi Cowboy, Pat Pong and Khosan road.
Needless to say Thaksin appears to be going for broke on this one. Thaksin is taking the chance at pissing off a whole bunch of Prime Ministers at the same time at the Asean Summit, and that could clip his wings significantly in his global hopping as countries turn him away. Collectively they may influence other countries who do not yet have agreements with Thailand to do the same.
Note: This post was composed around noon on April 9, events after that time are not considered in this post.
