Connecting the Dots

It is becoming increasingly clear Thailand’s Prime Minister Abhisit may be becoming sheep’s clothing for wolves who want self serving changes to the Constitution. The reason for this if Abhisit is on board with the Changes to the Constitution, the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) may not restart their rallies being opposed to the changes.

When the bad guys come out and say we want to change the Constitution, there is absolutely no doubt a repeat of 2008 will happen with all the rallies. Seeing is the bad guys have done only things for themselves, there is no reason to assume they would change. But put Abhisit on the front of the line looking for changes, and the PAD may think twice about coming out.

Seeing as there is no such thing as perfect, some tweaks to the Constitution are generally accepted as necessary. There are also parts of the Constitution that should not be changed, and particularly the parts that keep bad politicians in check. The issue here is the bad politicians may hijack the process.

Hijacking the process is actually very easy. All the bad guys have to do is hire people to come in and talk to whatever committee is listening. This is perfectly legal and is done all the time. An example would be a company spokesman who presents the companies position and not necessarily his or her own. Do enough of this and a false picture starts to get painted that the parts of the Constitution that keep bad politicians in check need to go.

After that whatever relevant committees will submit their findings to Abhisit for consideration. There is no doubt that will but Abhisit between a rock and a hard place forcing his hand to move in unnatural ways. Connecting the Dots feels that is too far into the future to make a call just yet as to how Abhisit will respond, but the chain of events we portrayed leading up to that point is very likely to happen.

The outcome the bad guys will be hoping for is Abhisit will be seen endorsing the changes that remove the checks because he will feel the wisdom of many outweighs the wisdom of one.

In reality the Constitution should not be changed just yet as it needs time to work. At the moment it is like criticizing an unfinished project. However it goes without saying that Abhisit checks the Constitution daily. Every move he makes must comply. Seeing as everything that is being done is having it’s first test with the Constitution, meaning there is no case history to reference, Abhisit understandably may be a bit annoyed with all the restrictions.

The bottom line is the people voted for the Constitution as is with a significant majority, and it should be given time to work. The general feeling is much of the political unrest is coming from the bad boy politicians who know they are going down. If it means Thailand must endure the unrest for a bit longer to insure a long and lasting time of peace and prosperity after the bad boy politicians are out of the picture, then that price may not be too much to ask for. However to cave in early only to have the same problem return in a few years is not really the best choice as it would stall Thailand’s advancement into the world community.

The below poll results were published in the media on May 10, 2009

A survey conducted by Assumption University’s Abac Poll revealed that 54.6 per cent of the respondents believed the 2007 constitution was better than the 1997 constitution.

The survey was conducted to see whether people supported or opposed the government’s plan to amend the charter.

81.9 per cent said they knew about the government’s plan.

50.1 per cent said they never read the 2007 constitution while 45.6 per cent said they read some of it. Only 4.3 per cent read it thoroughly.

73.3 per cent expected politicians and influential figures would gain most benefits, should the charter be amended.

57.7 per cent believed it would benefit only some groups of people and may lead to another national unrest.

Asked whether they would amend the constitution if they have the authority, 19.3 per cent said they would amend it right away, 44.4 per cent would look into it later and 36.3 per cent would leave it as it is.

Note that the 19.3% is consistent with Thaksin Shinawatra’s latest popularity poll that was conducted before the April riots being around 23%.