When you look at Thaksin’s goals and his present situation, his options for the moment look limited. However on the same note what is available is a bit more extreme.
Keeping in mind Thaksin’s ultimate goal is to rule Thailand, and becoming Prime Minister is just a step along that path. This remains the same as it was prior to the 2006 Coup. What has happened has just put a few more problems in his way. Considering that Thaksin seems never to forget a grudge and must come out on top with everything, people that are no longer involved are still seen on Thaksin’s to do list. That would include general Prem and whatever military personnel active or retired got in his way.
The first factor is the government seems to have found a way to place the red shirts in check. They can now only have peaceful rallies that match what they say, and not burn Thailand down as they seem to prefer to do. By placing the red shirts in a cage so to speak by surrounding them with thousands of riot police and military personnel, it limits them to being good protesters.
With the red shirts being the violent arm of Thaksin, they will be forced to come up with a new strategy to destabilize the government and that may involve explosives or decentralize violence both used in the past.
More assassination attempts may also happen but that is likely to not come from the red shirts. Even the investigation into the Sondhi Limthongkul assassination attempt is stalled while the next top cop is being picked. The fact that Sondhi Limthongkul is on Thaksin’s to do list says Thaksin still has influence in the police ranks.
As for Thaksin and his search for a home to make war from, his visit to Swaziland in southern Africa shows he is getting near the bottom of the barrel. There are at least 3 provinces in Thailand that are bigger than Swaziland, and the population in Swaziland is about 1.3 million as compared to Thailand’s 63 million. If his next broadcast is from a thatch hut with malnourished chickens running about, you will know how things are going. This is a far cry from his digs in London.
There are very few places left that will accept Thaksin, and likely have no connections to Thailand. Depending on if the Thai government identifies Thaksin as a war lord or not, that could reduce the number even more.
Thaksin’s political party the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) has also been a bit impotent on its attacks. They still cite the smallest things and no matter how they try to present it, they come across as a bunch of losers. The recent incident with the doctored audio tape of Prime Minister Abhisit may have sealed their fate, and that also limits Thaksin’s options. If the PTP can be seen as Thaksin’s ‘C’ team, then the ‘D’ team should just stay at home.
