It is very clear that convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra will use any means to overthrow the Thai Government. Rumors of a coup are clearly being seeded by Thaksin and his cronies to cause panic and uncertainty. But there is one big dot that is acting as an anchor against Thaksin and his moves.
Connecting the Dots has talked about what life would be like in Thailand if Thaksin ever came to power again. We have described Thailand being like Burma to summerize it. The local media has frequently made reference to a common interest that holds the coalition government together despite disputes over things like modifications to the Constitution. The one common bond is fear of the reality of what Thaksin will do if he was to ever regain power.
Thaksin does not forget a grudge. It is apparent that he is still stuck on September 19, 2006 while Thailand has moved on. Every effort by Thaksin has been pointed at resetting the clock back to the day before the coup and just pickup where he left off. That also mean to eliminate any and all that got in his way.
Thaksin’s obsession with going after members of the Privy counsel who he feels have harmed him including General Prem who is in his mid 80s shows there is no moral or ethical limits in what he will do. This is the big dot and the common bond that is holding things together in Thailand. They can clearly see Thaksin is not the same man he was. He is lost in his obsession and has become extremely dangerous.
So by spreading rumors that he will set up a government in exile if a coup happens is a clear giveaway who is behind the coup rumors. Threats to judges that are charged with deciding on Thaksin’s impounded money, spontaneous Red Shirt rallies all over Thailand and you have what amounts to intimidation.
However the worst thing Connecting the Dots sees is the media falling into Thaksin’s trap. It is only natural to hype things to earn your pay and sell some papers, and the news simply reports all it hears. If Chicken Little says the sky is falling, it will be up on line and flashing URGENT MUST READ in a matter of minutes that the sky is falling and not Chicken Little said the sky is falling. Thus it becomes a bit difficult to distinguish the truth from lies as it is the media that is saying it as if it was verified. The only way around this is to print a little history about Chicken Little to jog the readers memory about the credibility of the source of the news. Thaksin looks to cause panic and the media is the only way he can do that.
Connecting the Dots sees this as a molehill being hyped into a mountain. The only way we can see significant threat to Abhisit and his government is if there was some form of internal sabotage. With Abhisit being in the straight and narrow path and Thaksin grasping for straws there is little to suggest Thaksin holds a trump card up his sleeve.