Planned spontaneous violence

In what looks to be an opportunity to riot, Thaksin’s Red Shirts will gather outside the court house in what is being called anything but a rally. The reason is very clear to the Red Shirt leaders, and that reason being treason and a possible death sentence if there is any hint of an organized mob that erupts into violence.

This is a difficult one to call for making a prediction. There are just too many variables to consider. The Thai government can not stop people from gathering to listen to the court hand down its ruling on Thaksin. In fact Connecting the Dots suspects more than half of Thailand will be listening to the ruling as it is read.

There are some signs from Thaksin that suggest there will be violence. The first and most obvious is Thaksin will be some place in public when the ruling is being read and after. This is classic Thaksin so as to provide an alibi that he is not involved in the violence. He always is someplace else when things he plans happen. If he is seen as involved his welcome status in the UAE is likely to change in a blink of an eye.

The next factor to consider is the location of the more violence prone Thaksin supporters. If they are in or around the mob, they could be seen as the catalyst to trigger the heated mob. Also the age range of the mob will be a factor along with the gender content. High concentrations of young males simply suggest an increased likelihood of violence.

Unfortunately this will not be known until an hour or so before things start in the courtroom. It is unclear how long the reading of the verdict will take, but with the past urging of the King to the judges, the reading is likely to be in great detail and long in time to read.

For the Thai government this will be much like looking for funnel clouds descending from a supercell thunderstorm in tornado alley in the USA. They can appear and become a destructive tornado in moments destroying property and causing bodily harm.

Connecting the Dots suggest to stock up on basics for a day or 3 at home and things to keep you occupied. Depending on your lifestyle in Bangkok it can be food, water and movies or beer and condoms.

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