Connecting the Dots

For the convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra, judgment day has come and gone. In the wake of the court ruling Thaksin has concluded the court robbed him of the money he stole, and he now looks to get it back. As ludicrous as it sounds, that is how Thaksin views it as the word revenge is being floated in less than subtle ways.

For the next several days in Thailand, there looks to be a multitude of uncertainty as people start to analyze what happened with Thaksin. As emotions calm and people start to reflect on the wisdom of the court, some that were angry at first will eventually see the fairness and accept it. Others who choose denial will simply reject anything that does not match their self serving goals. To many Thais having to actually suffer the consequences of bad behavior is something new and foreign to them.

For Thaksin however he still sees himself above all laws and has yet to grasp the concept of that. The magnitude of his greed was possibly 100 times greater than what was seen before in Thailand. Some quick math with some very round numbers and 23,000,000 Baht per day is what Thaksin was stealing from Thailand and the Thai people. Yet in Thaksin’s mind this was all fair and just and he was doing nothing wrong. Unfortunately for Thailand and it’s people there is not a metaphor that can accurately describe this other than a Black hole.

So Thaksin now has been angered and the use of violence becomes more possible. With the bomb attacks on Bangkok Bank there is a very clear psychological link based on the recent Red Shirt Rallies. With a few steps removed this is Thaksin attacking General Prem. Thaksin clearly sees Prem as part of his downfall, and looks to settle the score. There is also an increased risk of assassinations of people who Thaksin sees as his enemies.

Thaksin clearly sees he must weaken the government in order to topple it, and Prime Minister Abhisit is the key pin in Thaksin’s mind. Abhisit has shown that he can hold things together, and with increasing support from the Thai people for Abhisit, he simply must be eliminated. Once the government is toppled Thaksin can start undoing things and then some.

Thaksin also faces new international problems as a result of the guilty verdict. All of Thaksin’s business dealings will be scrutinized as there is a very strong possibility dirty money was involved and that can spell major problems for companies. These companies will now face the fine tooth comb of the government’s criminal investigation bean counters. So the sudden urge to get out of business dealings with Thaksin will probably rival the desire to find a toilet when suffering a case of diarrhea. that also adds a sense of urgency for Thaksin to overthrow the government quickly.

So in short Thaksin is angry and very desperate at this point. He stands to loose everything at this point as legal action against Thaksin is insured. Some cases have already been decided and Thaksin is already guilty even that the trial has not started. In particular hiding his assets is a confession already made in attempt to avert the assets ruling just handed down. Any denial and he will simply purger himself in one case or the other. Thaksin was dangerous before, now he is a cornered animal and his mental state will refuse to let him stop like a moth to flame. Expect targeted violence as the only way out for Thaksin is by force. The legal deck is stacked against him because the judgment day ruling has already covered so much in such great detail, it is like the prosecution getting a Christmas gift wrapped in clear plastic.