All the red flags are showing in Thailand. Thaksin has his back against the wall and the clock will not grant him any more extensions. So what has been predicted looks to be an absolute certainty.
In the classic good verses evil, good always tends to win out in the end one way or another. But during the course of the drama from time to time evil gets the upper hand for a while. If this is the final act or not depends a lot on your understanding of mental illness of the psychotic variety.
To a person who shows the same characteristics as Thaksin, there is no stopping until the goal is reached. To them it does not matter of you are a peasant, royalty or anyone in between, if you are in the way you will be eliminated. In this case Thaksin not only has that basic drive that has driven him to attack several times in the past 42 months since the coup that ousted him, he has a clock that is already chiming out the last 12 chimes. On or about March 28, Thaksin will be banned from Thai politics for life as a result of his assets conviction that was read February 26.
On that date the money in Thaksin’s accounts will be disbursed to Thailand’s coffers and he will be forever banned from Thai politics. This has set up such an urgency in Thaksin to stop the clock before the twelfth chime (more so than Cinderella) he is like a nuclear reactor with all the control rods pulled full out. So far neither Thaksin or any of his cronies have been able to over come the power and the teeth of the 2007 Constitution. So when the clock hits 12, it is game over.. Or is it.
This rally that is set for this weekend is not really a rally. It is an attack on justice and democracy all rolled into one. Simply put if Thaksin is successful in overthrowing Prime Minister Abhisit’s government, Thaksin will have successfully smashed the clock. According to the news and opinions of others, this so called rally is an invading army in disguise. Until one of the Red Shirts does something violent, the facade will remain in place and Abhisit will have limited options.
As for all the warning signs, it is simply deja vu from the April riots. Thaksin’s family is departing Thailand, and that is simply the last red flag that says there is a running fan sitting in the toilet bowl. As planned as they made it look, it simply is a warning sign to stock up on supplies if you live in Bangkok.
So Thaksin will try every possible thing to over throw the government, and a quick reminder nothing is too low for Thaksin to try. In the past when people thought he hit bottom on how low he could go, he simply surprised everyone and exposed another dimension that would make the most evil Thai mythical creature blush. So a full on assault with assassinations at the same time is well within Thaksin’s level of nastiness to see his goal.
The difference between this so called rally and the April 2009 riots is significant. In April Thaksin tried to burn Bangkok down and overthrow the government, but he simply misjudged Abhisit because Abhisit never flexed his muscles. Now Thaksin knows how Abhisit will respond, so Thaksin has called in all his resources. They include sleepers being pro Thaksin people working in Abhisit’s government, the police and military to act as saboteurs. Collectively that could tip the scale in Thaksin’s favor. So simply use your wildest imagination and then think worse and you will have some idea of what Thaksin will do.
The fact that Thaksin is more low key this time suggests he wants it to appear it is the people’s choice and not his. However if Thaksin feels he has the momentum in his favor he will take the lead. If he is in close proximity to Thailand perhaps Cambodia you can be assured Thaksin is running things as the UAE will have non of it.
On the other note if Thaksin is not successful you can expect a private coup for the next round with one of the goals being ripping up that silly 2007 Constitution that says he can not play anymore. If you have any doubts about that, check with a psychiatrist and they will quickly verify that to be the case with people suffering from this type of mental illness.
Connecting the Dots strongly suggests you take this event seriously and to have adequate supplies and someone pleasant to pass the time with if you are in Bangkok. You could be stuck inside for several days while the Thais sort out their future.