Red Shirt leaders reality check

Some simply knew the question was coming. Others felt that perhaps the Red Shirt leaders were smart enough to realize their fate was all but sealed. But to hear the Red Shirt leaders asking for insured bail does leave the casual observer reaching for some popcorn as the end game seems to be nearing.

To clarify the term ‘End Game’, Connecting the Dots simply means this particular round and not the end all end game. In this case the Red Shirt rally has not achieved its goals of seeing Abhisit and his government bite the dust. And that means that western style governments do not influence the courts. So all the bargaining on what the political landscape will look like has nothing at all to do with the personal criminal proceedings of the accused Red Shirt leaders.

So when the Red Shirt leaders asked Prime Minister Abhisit to insure bail, and he replied it is up to the courts and out of my hands, there was most likely a hard swallow followed immediately by a call to Thaksin asking him to buy the judge. All things considered, it is hard to recall anyone in any country who has been charged with terrorism that is supported with significant evidence to get bail. The next time they would potentially see the light of day would be moments after a not guilty verdict.

Based on that little statistic and that the judges that will likely hear the cases have had an audience with the King on at least one occasion about doing the right thing, it is hard to see bail being granted. If bail is granted, then most likely that judge will come under a huge magnifying glass to see if he has been bought. If he has then most likely things will be quickly corrected one way or another.

The fact that the Red Shirts are thinking along the lines like the government they want installed and that the Prime Minister has influence over the courts is a little reminder of why Thailand is so divided. Things like that only seem to happen in countries that have dictators or overwhelming corruption. On that note Burma seems to come to mind where court rulings make no sense at all no matter how much supporting evidence there is.

For the most part the highest Thai courts seem to be clean, but it does not take too far of a walk from the top to see double standards and corruption being applied from the bench. That cleaning process will take years, but in this case only the top courts will be involved based on the nature of the crimes and the alleged perpetrators.

Ironically the double standard the Red Shirts are seeking to end will default to the less pleasant of the standards meaning jail and not getting cut loose. After all the second standard they were seeking to eliminate was the one that provided favors allowing people to skip over the law. This now the perfect example of be careful what you wish or ask for.

Meanwhile in classic Thaksin style, he is far away doing his best not to sound involved as the accused Red Shirt leaders get ready to end their dance with the devil.  The question remains how many Red Shirt leaders will stick around and surrender with the prospects of no bail and a guilty verdict that carries the death penalty. Thaksin is also likely to toss this bunch in the trash bin and look for new Red Shirt Leaders as they seemed to have sided with Abhisit and have forgotten reconciliation was not the goal. As this drama unfolds, it is best watched while eating hot buttered popcorn that is lightly salted.

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