It would seem that one of the tactics or at least one of the side effects of the State of Emergency is running down the clock to the next scheduled elections. With that thought, it seems the pro Thaksin camp is getting a bit restless.
When you look at the reasons why a government would be justified in dissolving Parliament, it comes down to a very short list. First that parliament has become non functional and deadlocked. Second is if a significant number of members went off line so to speak. The Polish government disaster is the rough equal of scale. Massive corruption would also be another reason. Outside of that there are few things that justify that action.
With Prime Minister Abhisit calling the shots if and when that will happen, it will more than likely not happen or happen very late. His government is functional and actually is the first functional government after the 2006 coup. The junta appointed government really did not do much because of lack of qualified people. The next two governments that were lead by The People Power Party also did nothing for the country and only worked to bring Thaksin back to power. So essentially if you take a snapshot of today, you will find no legitimate reason to justify dissolving Parliament. In fact if it is dissolved the chances are greater that more negatives will be produced as compared to positives.
As for the State of Emergency that is running down the clock, there were no visible indicators to support it. But now that is starting to change as the Red Shirts are starting to test things again in their usual way by disobeying the law. Also the longer the State of Emergency lasts, the potential value of gains by rallies or other attacks will be reduced, and that simply increases the possibility of normalcy. Simply there is significant incentive to maintain the State of Emergency. It is not perfect but it is the lesser of two evils.
Quoting the AP;
BANGKOK — Several hundred Red Shirt protesters defied a state of emergency in the Thai capital to stage a symbolic protest Sunday, with hundreds of people sprawling on the ground and chanting, “People died here!”
The demonstration at the city’s Democracy Monument was peaceful, but it was the latest sign of simmering discontent since the army cracked down May 19 to disperse a sprawling anti-government protest camp and end 10 weeks of demonstrations calling for early elections. More
This is all about cause and effect and there are some efforts underway by the pro Thaksin group to skip past a few dominos to repaint the picture and thus change the context. The above mentioned short Red Shirt protest is an attempt at making people forget it was their disobedience of the law that eventually lead to the use of force to disburse them. However conducting the protest in the shadows of burned out buildings that they themselves burnt, it is likely to be a reminder that will turn against the Red Shirts as the preceding dominos are clearly visible just a few meters away.
Also the chain of events is still very clear in the minds of people who were in Thailand while all this was going on and all the negatives be it damage or death can be traced back to the Red Shirts. It does not matter who pulled the trigger, if the Red Shirts were not there violating the law and attacking people with different opinions, there would have been no need to raise a gun and fire it be it a rubber bullet or a live round of ammunition.
This also suggests an attempt by the Red Shirts to divert attention as similar themes have been trying to emerge. All this actually provides justification for the State of Emergency as it seems the Red Shirts are planning to pickup exactly where they left off but with at twist. They look to blame the speeding train for hitting them because they were standing on the tracks. Somehow there are subtle hints of Darwin’s theory being demonstrated by the Red Shirts.