Bangkok bomber analyzed

Doing a story about a series of bombs around Bangkok is not a story we would normally get involved in. But there is something about this that has a familiar smell and it does fit some behaviors we have talked about before. Because of that Connecting the Dots figured we would put out a mediocre story and connect a few familiar dots.

So here we are reading in the news about a series of bomb attacks in and around greater Bangkok. The police claim they know who is behind it, but lack the evidence to make an arrest. There seems to be a game of cat and mouse going on as well if you look at it in one light. But if you look at it again you see something entirely different.

Connecting the Dots simply sees this series of bombs being very similar to a two year old’s temper tantrum. There is clearly some anger that things are not going the bombers way, and he is simply trying to harm the people who are in his way. In short the attacks are both childish and immature. There is a lack of diplomacy that is being replaced by violence.

There also seems to be no specific pattern to where the bombs are going off. Some are clearly thumping on justice and authority, and some are clearly just opportunistic targets.

Historically people that acted in the same way were hard core Thaksin supporters. When the September 2006 coup removed Thaksin, a series of bombs went off 3 months later on New Years eve. They remain unsolved as do most politically motivated bombs. But with the claim by police that they know who is behind this particular spree, it is a coin toss if you believe the police or not.

The other consideration is asking who would benefit from continued unrest and once again Thaksin is about the only beneficiary.

As for the Abhisit government, the state of emergency and the regular announcements that more bombs can be expected set psychology into motion. By doing this the psychological effect of the bombs is less and tends to imply the people opposed to government are behind the bombs. So essentially Abhisit loses no political points if a bomb goes off. In fact he may even gain a few points as victims can be both pro and anti Thaksin or Abhisit and there is a certain feeling of camaraderie as seemingly anyone can be a victim of the bomber.

So to analyze the dots we see the bomber is a person or persons who is angry about how things are going be it too long to wait for the next elections, or they are some place in Que in the courts knowing they will be found guilty for other things and face jail. Seeing the courts are taking a more serious stance with the Red Shirt leaders, this is a strong motivating factor. The bomber also has a history of violence and is somewhat immature and lacks a higher education or at least patience. Perhaps the word ‘Thug’ can sum this up. The environment in Thailand under Abhisit that looking the other way is for the most part on hold or over. The bomber is not happy with that as it is highly likely more than once he got away with things when people simply turned their heads.

One Response to Bangkok bomber analyzed

  1. What’s clear about this rash of grenade-type bombings is that the folks perpetrating them seem to be avoiding any venues where large numbers of people might be killed or injured by the blasts. For example, the blast at the Office of the Attorney General appeared to have damaged the lawn and cracked some nearby windows. The fact that these blasts seem to occur with impunity suggests that someone may not be trying very hard to catch the perps.

    That raises the obvious question whether some of the boys in uniform at CRES are staging these events to justify the continued imposition of emergency rule in Bangkok and other provinces, which, in turn, keeps CRES from being put out of business. Indeed, you might even say that CRES is functioning now as a coup-in-waiting, keeping its structure intact so that it can take over the government any time it chooses to discard Abhisit for someone else. With Deputy PM Suthep running for an MP seat in Surat Thani next month, thus becoming eligible to serve as PM, the army brass could dump Abhisit (or have the Court ban him in the Democrat corruption case), making Suthep the next civilian fig leaf for de facto military rule.