An interesting chain of events is about to play out in the Thai courts on Monday. The outcome of that Monday ruling will no doubt leave some people happy, and other sad as politics and crime find themselves hinged on the same court ruling.
This is the perfect example of be carful what you ask for as you just may get it. A process on one front will directly affect all the others. In this mixing pot rests The United States, Russia, and Thailand for countries. For the others, there is Thaksin Shinawatra, Thai reconciliation, Viktor Bout, Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart, and Prime Minister Abhisit.
There are quite a few groups of dots here so pay attention. Group 1 is the Thai reconciliation group. They include Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart, Prime Minister Abhisit, Thaksin Shinawatra, and all the people who are some place in the court process in relation to political violence of late.
In Group 2 there is the United States, Russia, Thailand, and Viktor Bout.
What is about to happen in the Thai courts on Monday is a ruling that is all about withdrawing charges in cases that have already been accepted into the Thai courts. Essentially as Connecting the Dots understands this is once a case has been accepted by the Thai criminal court, it is in control of the court and not the people that put it there. It amounts to putting food on someone’s plate then taking it off.
Apparently the Viktor Bout extradition to the United States is now hinging on whether taking food off the courts plate is permitted or not. As the United States had a favorable ruling and Viktor Bout was cleared to be extradited, clearing the other charges was necessary to free Viktor from the Thai courts. Apparently that did not happen with a court ruling and was done at another level. The validity of that is what will be ruled on Monday. Apparently this was put to the court by Prime Minister Abhisit to quell a storm by letting the courts decide.
How this will effect group 1 is significant. Apparently much of what Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart is doing evolves around letting people in trouble off the hook to bring about reconciliation. It also says that if I am the next Prime Minister, I can make this happen. So there is some power plays going on as well, and this is a classic Thai politics power broker at work.
As Prime Minister Abhisit is keen on letting the courts deal with the people and keeping political meddling out of the courts, the Viktor Bout ruling essentially will allow future Thai political deals to be made or not. If the court rules only they can remove food from their plate, then much of what Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart is doing becomes DOA. He nor anyone else will be able to touch anything that has been accepted by the courts.
This quickly dampens if not extinguishes any attempts at amnesty and other things already accepted by the court that Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart seems to be levitating to. This also leaves Prime Minister Abhisit politically undamaged as the decision moves from politics to the court.
This also will have a significant effect on the future of Thai politics. Many bad boy politicians now in criminal court Que for one thing or another would need to make a hard choice. Do the time or join Thaksin in exile wherever he is hiding. As most are Thaksin cronies, this should be a significant house cleaning event.
That in turn would clean up Thai politics significantly as it is a bunch of repeat offenders making all the problems. On the down side Viktor Bout may end up going free as the clock is running. If the courts do not clear the other cases by mid November, that is what will happen.
If the court rules that food can be taken off their plate by others, then Viktor Bout is on the next flight to the US, Russia is angry but can do little as it is a court ruling, and Thai politics remains unchanged.
Linking Thaksin with Viktor Bout is really lame on your part. Your title implies that Thaksin and Bout were involved in some sort of illegal weapons transactions. You present no facts because there is none – but hey, who needs facts when smears will do?
Your one blog consists of two entirely separate topics: the Viktor Bout extradition fiasco and the amnesty program fiasco.
The extradition of Viktor Bout to the US should be a legal matter and not a political one. Criminals and suspected criminals get extradited from Thailand all of the time. Thai law and the US/Thailand bilateral extradition treaty are quite clear.
Unfortunately, the US and Russia have made it political but Abhisit hasn’t helped either. His close aide, Sirichoke secretly visiting Bout in prison and Abhisit getting caught lying about it implies something isn’t quite right here. Whoops, I was wrong. There is actually a connection. Sirichoke asked Bout how to shoot down Thaksin’s private jet (please tell me who’s the terrorist now). Now yesterday, Abhisit says “that he will have the final say in the politically sensitive extradition of alleged Russian arms smuggler Viktor Bout to the United States.” Well so much for “rule of law” when you can simply bypass the law.
Then there is the Bhum Jai Thai amnesty program. I think that Newin is concerned that he is seen by a lot of Issan people as having blood on his hands for having betrayed Thaksin and Pheu Thai and for being part of the Abhisit government’s bloody crackdown on the Red Shirt protesters. By proposing an amnesty for the Red Shirts, he is trying to get back into their good favor. By giving PAD an amnesty too, he kills two birds with one stone. This isn’t going to happen as both Pheu Thai and the Democrats are opposed to it. So are the Red Shirts and the PAD.