The Thaksin US dilemma

The casinos are probably taking bets at this point if Thaksin will go to the US and offer testimony. This chance to talk and give his political enemies a solid jab is exactly the sort of thing Thaksin thrives on, and it is also exactly a method used in the US by law enforcement to scoop up people on the run.

In what could be called a moth to flame operation, the convicted fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra has been offered exactly what he has been looking for. The fit is almost if not exactly an exact match. To be seen as taking the high road, all while giving it to Prime Minister Abhisit and his government is a huge desire and if pulled off will offer huge political points for Thaksin. So with this Connecting the Dots will do what we do and that is to connect the dots.

First and most important, Thaksin thinks he will be going to offer testimony about the military crackdown. He feels his opinions and point of view will do major political damage to Abhisit and the Democratic party in Thailand. But the simple fact is that is not likely to be the case.

Thaksin was not in Thailand and all the news and information he has is second hand. Therefore he is not what would be called a primary witness and can only offer hearsay testimony. Seeing that often the information Thaksin has been given is flawed and twisted to be self serving for the information provider, and the high state of emotion during the crackdown, it is likely any testimony along this line of questioning will be seen as irrelevant.

However Thaksin is seen as the money man and de facto leader of the Red Shirts by connecting another group of dots. Therefore questions are likely to be more along those lines as to why the Red Shirts acted as they did leading up to the no other option military assault. In that respect Thaksin would be seen in more of a criminal light by leading sheep to slaughter and ignoring legitimate government orders to disburse.

In this respect is where Thaksin is seen as the commanding general of his Red Shirt army, no less significant than Abhisit and his role over the military. It does not matter how much Thaksin denies this, there are too many dots that say he is the man who must answer for this.

So seeing that all of this is so similar to US law enforcement sting operations, there is a significant chance Thaksin will be served up as payment for the recent delivery of Viktor Bout. After getting a good look and taste of what is going on behind the scenes thanks to WikiLeaks, Connecting the Dots feels one of 2 possible scenarios will play out.

The first scenario is Thaksin will backout citing insufficient personal security, and attempt to make testimony via video link.

The second scenario is Thaksin will be allowed to give testimony and upon conclusion of his testimony be arrested.

As the situation in Thailand as shifted to be more normal and winning or losing happens at the ballot box and not in the street, Thaksin needs to have this boost to better insure his party wins in the elections. The fact that the US has offered this tailor made opportunity for Thaksin is more than coincidence.

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