For the last several weeks the popularity of the Bring Thaksin Home Government was/is starting to slip. Normally this cycle is part of all Governments that are elected, but in this case there is a sense of desperation by the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra to whitewash himself before his government popularity slips below the waves. That simply means problems ahead for Thailand starting August 1 when Parliament reconvenes.
If the time between the reversal of Thailand’s political pendulum holds true, it will be 2 or 3 years before it reverses again. So it goes without saying Thaksin is not willing to wait. So it is a bit of a no brainer that there will be a big push as soon as Parliament reconvenes.
The reason for the swing comes down to failing populous policies that are way too corrupt and bleeding the country dry. Recent polls show a significant number of people displeased with them and if the Government changes the policy to comply, they will lose their voter base. So to put it in no uncertain terms, the pro-Thaksin Government is in a catch 22 situation. It also follows the norm that all politically fatal moves in Thailand are self inflicted.
So as you start to connect the dots with this, there will be a huge spike in political unrest and most certainly that will provoke the violence prone Red Shirts to attack. But even the Red Shirts are angry at the Government for their own reason. The are now really starting to understand that they were just pawns for Thaksin and that there is no reward unless they push for it. That translates into more bad news for Thaksin and the Pheu Thai Party.
So we expect a hard push with little or no warning to the opposition because confrontation is a given if told it will be done. If that happens then that will simply lead towards out and out violence and that could prompt the military to stage a Coup, because the Government will not be able to counter as the number of anti-Thaksin Thais are well into the tens of millions. So if the Arab Spring is any type of lesson, a Thai Spring is very possible and Thailand may follow in the steps of Egypt. The fact the phrase Thai Spring has already been in the news says where the Thai mind set is.
Other things that are pointing to this is democracy is already slipping away. When an anti-Government anti-Thaksin group has a rally, the Red Shirts don’t exactly counter rally, they engage and attack the protesters and the police let it happen the same as the Thaksin Government did in the months leading up to the 2006 Coup. So if we can draw a comparison to the events of 2006, we would be in the month of June 2006 as events are more or less identical with attacks on protesters going unchecked and Thaksin getting more aggressive. Needless to say onlookers may want to grab a bag of popcorn and see how closely 2013 parallels 2006.