Unbalanced stand-off with Thaksin Shinawatra

As Thailand’s political unrest continues, the financial pain continues to grow as Thailand’s economy moves from the plus to the minus column. This unfortunately plays into Thaksin’s hands as shortly after the 2006 coup, Thaksin announced he would squeeze Thailand into submissiveness by using this exact same method.

When compared side by side, Thaksin has a clear advantage when it comes to weathering Thailand’s financial storms. The average Thai’s prosperity is tied to Thailand’s economy when Thaksin’s is not. Because of this, Thaksin can simply wait for Thailand to cry out in pain and give in to his wishes. The only way to bring balance to this stand-off is let Thaksin experience a negative cash flow as well.

The evidence of this is clear as Thaksin has been mostly silent about the events in Thailand from the start of the Anti-Government protests. He has only spoken when directly interviewed by the media seeking his viewpoint on one issue or the other. The latest was his view on the actions of the Constitutional court when they took a big chunk of the Government and sent them packing.

But looking to bring balance to this stand-off, at the moment the only hit Thaksin may have coming is the bill for the failed February 2 elections. In the basic psychology of ‘No rewards for undesirable behavior’, The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) looks to be saddled with the 3.8 Billion Baht bill before the next elections will even be considered. Even for Thaksin, that is a significant chunk of cash.

Quoting The Bangkok Post;

The Office of the Auditor General has demanded the Government take responsibility for the 3.8 billion baht spent on the now nullified February 2 election. The office on Wednesday wrote to former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, demanding her government foot the bill. It claimed it had warned her Government that the spending would be a waste. The office had said the polls were unlikely to succeed amid the turmoil and could be nullified.

Even now what remains of the Government is very reluctant to have the Senate convene as the items on the agenda include impeachment of several pro-Thaksin, former members of Parliament, former Senators, and former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Failure to call the Senate could be seen as obstruction of justice and be grounds for removing what remains of the Government. This too is a hit for Thaksin but not one he can not recover from.

So it comes down to who will blink first. Thaksin has already brought legal action against the Anti-Government protesters for lost revenue when they protested at Thaksin owned businesses, but that looks to be a shot in the dark at best. Paying for the elections is going to hurt, but Thaksin will try to figure a way to get that money back as that is how he thinks. He will attempt to nullify the behavioral psychology of no rewards for bad behavior.

The Red Shirts will have an input in this as well. They have been warned numerous times about violence, and if they do get violent their leader Jatuporn Prompan looks to sit in jail until his trial from the 2010 Red Shirt Riots is heard by the court.

So it all looks to come down to who can endure the longest. If there is no way to have an election before reforms are in place, this looks to be long and dragged out as Thaksin just sits and waits for the Thai people to scream in financial pain.

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