Thaksin and Red Shirts waiting for first opportunity to resume

Subtle hints of Thaksin working behind the scenes to resume where he left off are finding their way into the news. The reports are increasing in frequency and gradually taking on a more political tone. The only thing that is keeping Thaksin’s volume down is Martial Law, and that is entirely the reason Martial law is being kept in place.

This was not unexpected and it was encompassed in our earlier predictions. What we are observing is Thaksin and the Red Shirts finding the limit of just how far they can push before the military comes cracking down on them. They are taking advantage of every opportunity to be seen together whether it be a funeral or just some public gathering.

As per usual and a classic Thaksin signature, it will be the Red Shirts that will take the hit if and when the military reigns them in. Thaksin is far away and can effectively deny his involvement, despite his signature behaviors being carried out.

Unfortunately the fact this is going on says Thailand’s political violence is not over. At some point Martial Law will be lifted and pre-organized Red Shirt events are likely to appear very quickly in days if not hours. That will have the effect of immediately raising the anxiety up to pre-coup levels. They most certainly will have plenty of self serving (or if you prefer Thaksin serving) things to complain about.

The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) politicians are also up in arms because the way things are shaping up is they will have to pay the price for putting Thaksin ahead of the Thai people. Looking to illegally change the Constitution is among the group of offenses that look to at the least side line them for 5 years to a hefty jail sentence at the other end of the spectrum.

Needless to say Thaksin does not want this to happen as it just becomes another layer he must deal with before he can become Thailand’s dictator. You can chalk that up to narcissistic persistence.

Looking forward to what seems to be going on, it is easy to say that if the 2007 Constitution had teeth, the new Constitution will also have claws and be very hungry looking for bad boy politicians. The 2007 Constitution was passive waiting for politicians to make a wrong move. There are hints the new Constitution may be a predator as well by actively seeking out past bad behavior.

That would be wishful thinking as so many issues of corruption have fallen between the cracks and have been lost in time. Speeding that up by expanding the hunting and conviction resources to play catch up seems to be hinted at by the new interim Government. These are all things Thaksin does not want and they are all being considered because of Thaksin and his impatience.

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